Some people outside Texas may have been less surprised by the recent report that the state’s respected senior senator, John Cornyn, may be facing a 2026 Republican primary challenge than by the fact that the threat is coming from Rep. Ronny Jackson.
After all, no one in the sensible center of the GOP seems immune these days from an attack from the right, and Cornyn has always faced some such flak. But Dr. Ronny?
Once the well-regarded White House physician, Jackson in just one term has morphed into so reflexively Trumpian a congressman that he seems just to this side of Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene on the GOP’s right flank. He is also under scrutiny by the House Ethics Committee on charges of improperly using campaign funds for a private club
The congressman from the panhandle city of Amarillo provides a sharp contrast with his thoughtful predecessor, Republican Mac Thornberry, who chaired the House Armed Services Committee. Politically, he more resembles Cornyn’s 2014 primary challenger, former Rep. Steve Stockman, who lost by 20 points. Stockman also ended up in jail for spending a charity’s funds for political and personal uses.
The Texas Tribune reported that Jackson is mulling a challenge to Cornyn in 2026 when the former state Supreme Court justice and attorney general could become the first five-term Texas Republican senator.
"I'm not planning anything, for the record, but I'm open to anything,” the congressman from Amarillo told the Washington Examiner, a non-denial denial if ever there was one.
Cornyn’s advisers profess to be unconcerned. He has defeated prior conservative primary challengers and is a formidable fundraiser, one noted, adding that a lot can change in the three-plus years before the March 2026 primary.
The senator’s situation reminded me of something one of his top advisers told me when he was first elected to succeed Phil Gramm in 2002.
Don’t be surprised if Cornyn has a very conservative voting record in the Senate, the late David Beckwith said, correctly contending that the only political danger he’d ever face in Texas would come from being considered insufficiently conservative.
Well, that day may be coming, but certainly not because Cornyn hasn’t proven over the years to be a solid conservative. In 2020, the conservative group Heritage Action rated Cornyn the 13th “most politically right” of the 52 Republican senators.
This year, his ranking has declined somewhat because of several votes for bipartisan measures that were opposed by more conservative lawmakers, like Cornyn’s Texas colleague Ted Cruz, and conservative groups like Heritage Action. As a result, it currently rates Cornyn below most of his Senate GOP colleagues.
The votes included the CHIPS bill, revitalizing the domestic semiconductor industry enabling the United States to compete better with China; an omnibus spending bill to fund the government; and a bill strengthening background checks for potentially dangerous gun purchasers.
It was Cornyn’s role in helping to craft the latter measure after a lone gunman massacred 21 school children and teachers in the Texas town of Uvalde that attracted the ire of conservative groups and Texans who favor the least possible restrictions on gun ownership.
At last June’s state GOP convention, some delegates booed Cornyn when he sought to explain the limits of his plan expanding “red flag” laws restricting gun ownership by persons considered potential threats and reiterated his opposition to more sweeping measures of liberal gun control advocates.
“I will not, under any circumstances, support new restrictions for law abiding gun owners, he said. “That will always be my red line. And despite what some of you may have heard, the framework that we are working on is consistent with that red line.”
Around the same time, a poll by a conservative group, Defend Texas Liberty PAC, showed Cornyn would lose a primary to state attorney general Ken Paxton by 20 points, though the latter is facing criminal charges of securities fraud.
The senator’s job disapproval level in Texas has also increased. According to the June poll of the nonpartisan Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas in Austin, Cornyn’s June job disapproval among all polled hit a seven-year high of 50%, compared with 39% in April. In August, it receded somewhat to 42%.
Ironically, the potential challenge surfaced as Cornyn has emerged as a top contender to be the next Senate Republican leader, along with South Dakota Sen. John Thune and Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso. Sen. Mitch McConnell, 80, is expected to retire when his current term ends in 2026. Leaders often must make compromises that are anathema to ideological purists.
In one sense, Thune may have an advantage because, at 61, he is nine years younger than both Cornyn and Barrasso. Choosing a new leader in his 70s may be too much in even the geriatric Senate hierarchy.
Another unpredictable factor is former President Donald Trump, whose antipathy toward McConnell is well known. By 2026, Trump will either be president or a has-been who lost the presidency in 2024 or decided it was unwise to try.
Predicting the outcome of leadership battles is always hazardous. But one thing is certain: To be your party’s leader, you must keep your seat. And at this point, Cornyn seems likely to face a 2026 challenge to do so – from Dr. Ronny or someone else on his right.
