Cardiff City will be counting the pennies more closely this summer than years gone by. It is a chance for them to hit the reset button, to make the club more sustainable moving forward.
But there is, of course, a need to be competitive next season. The thought of relegation to League One does not bear thinking about, especially when you are trying to stave off financial ruin. Recruitment this summer has to be bang on the money, with little room for error given the tight budgetary constraints.
The undertaking is enormous, yes, but not impossible. Steve Morison has voiced his excitement about the upcoming few months and many fans share that sentiment, too. Of course, there is a sense of trepidation among some sections of supporters and this is understandable.
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Cardiff's wage structure will alter dramatically next season. While there is talk of a wage cap in the air, one source has told WalesOnline they will operate on an average wage structure, rather than a cap, per se. It means they want the senior squad to average out at a certain number, meaning if they push the boat out too far on one player's wage it will have a negative, trickle-down effect on others. We have been told that the wage budget Cardiff have to operate on next season will place them among the lowest in the division.
That's where the trepidation and the worry comes in. But Luton Town have a bottom-three budget and are currently on course to secure a play-off spot. Smart recruitment, a clear plan and clearly a talented and cohesive coaching staff all play their part and Luton are testament to that.
More than one source has indicated to this outlet, too, that Huddersfield Town are a team Cardiff aspire to next season and rightly so. A year ago there were calls to sack coach Carlos Corberan, now his Terriers side are third in the Championship table and preparing for a play-off campaign. Quite remarkable, really, but that is why we love the Championship. A new season brings fresh opportunities and renewed optimism.
Huddersfield brought in 13 players over the course of the two windows before and during this season, all of which were either free transfers or Premier League loan recruits. That is, almost exactly, what Cardiff want to do. The free transfers ranged from 20 to 31 years old, all off-cuts or faces that didn't fit anymore, for whatever reason, but still with a lot to give.
It's reminiscent of the Oakland A's 'moneyball' tactics, championed by Billy Beane, who incidentally is involved with Barnsley now. Getting players whose numbers work as a collective, rather than bigger names who are invariably more costly but might not fit the system.
It's all about the planning and knowing what you want a squad of players to look like. It'll be about curating a group worthy of sustaining a Championship campaign, rather than relying on wonders from certain individuals. Cardiff's interest in Forest Green Rovers' Ebou Adams plays into that school of thought. Adams, who is out of contract this summer, is the third-best player for the League Two leaders this season and is the 10th-best rated player in the entire division, according to WhoScored's metrics.
Someone's cast-off will be someone else's gold dust, it's always the case. Huddersfield are a case in point. Should Will Vaulks leave Cardiff this summer, he will be the ideal man for someone else in the Championship or League One, no doubt. The same can be said for Josh Murphy and others, too.
Another reason why this summer is so huge is because of the looming potential of a transfer embargo, too. The Emiliano Sala case is still to be decided in the Court of Arbitration for Sport after Cardiff appealed the initial FIFA ruling.
FIFA's players' status committee imposed a three-window transfer ban on the Championship club in their initial verdict, but Cardiff hope that will not come to fruition as they await the outcome of their appeal. You can read more about the CAS hearing here.
If an embargo is put in place, Cardiff hope it won't be until the January window, meaning they will have to seriously stockpile in the summer. They will need a campaign-ready squad by the close of the summer window if they are indeed unable to trade in the winter months, which puts even more emphasis on the off-season.
It also means that while, yes, there will be a reliance on loan players to sprinkle some quality on the squad, the permanent signings of free agents or very cheap players will have to be right. Cardiff will have a core of Dillon Phillips, Mark McGuinness, Curtis Nelson, Joel Bagan, Ryan Wintle, Rubin Colwill, Isaak Davies, James Collins and Max Watters. Joe Ralls and potentially Sean Morrison might be in the building, too, but as things stand their contracts will run out, while Collins might look for regular game-time elsewhere. That core, in some shape or form, must be strengthened if a transfer ban is placed on their heads should the Sala ruling be unfavourable.
Let's not forget the elephant in the room, too, the talk of a takeover. It's all gone a little quiet on that front, but we understand that in recent months there has indeed been interest in the Welsh capital city club. However, nothing concrete appears to have been put on the table. Vincent Tan is determined to leave Cardiff in a better state than when he found it, which would involve driving down the debt further and seeing a more viable business model in place which puts an emphasis upon youth. Read more on that subject here.
The Sala ruling will likely have a bearing on any interest materialising into an actual bid, too. And like most things, it could all come down to price. But a takeover cannot be ruled out entirely. If one was to come to fruition it might see an initial injection of cash and, with it, the ability to spend a little more freely in the window. But that's all pie in the sky stuff now. Plus, even if it did happen, there is a determination within the club to make it more fit-for-purpose and sustainable and there is a strong belief that this current plan is the way to do that.
When it is all boiled down, the focus is on building success on a shoestring. Sounds simple when you say it, doesn't it? Well, Cardiff's recruitment team are working around the clock to ensure that plan is implemented in the off-season. They are looking at the Premier League, Championship, Leagues One and Two and even in Non-League and Europe. Hundreds of players will come out of contract in those divisions and Cardiff have to show why they are the right choice for the players they deem top of the pile.
Cardiff want more pace in their side and more footballing nous. You see the likes of Tommy Doyle out on the pitch and although he is just 20, he screams and shouts, demanding standards. Too many of the Bluebirds young stars are silent out there on the grass. It is that perfect alchemy of leaders and talent that Cardiff must bring in this summer.
Deals will have to be struck, as they were in January, to pay fractions of these Premier League players' wages. Cardiff managed to lop off a chunk of their salaries in the winter window and will have to be similarly stern at the bargaining table this time around.
There will be a scramble for the best free agents, as there always is, and Cardiff won't be able to dangle the bags of cash that parachute-payments-bolstered clubs at the top end will be able to. They will have to sell the vision and the plan and hope beyond hope that they get their targets in the building. Because it is a club with huge potential with a huge, latent fan base to be tapped into, a belief which has been held for years. That is the idea that prospective players must buy into.
If they do, well, the dream is that in 12 months' time they find themselves where Luton and Huddersfield do right now, just a few games away from an incredible shot at the Premier League.
