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Wales Online
Sport
Tom Coleman

Cardiff City are right to panic, the scenarios that come with relegation to League One are frightening

"We have to panic... We have to panic."

It's fair to say Sabri Lamouchi made little effort to sugarcoat the situation facing Cardiff City right now.

A 13th defeat in all competitions has left the Bluebirds struggling to keep their head above water in the Championship relegation fight. Just two points now separate them from the trapdoor. A state of affairs potent enough on its own to cause many a sleepless night for Cardiff fans.

READ MORE: Cardiff City notes: 'Shut up and work', a shake-up needed and why Rubin Colwill was left out

But with all three of the sides below them now having the enviable luxury of two games in hand, it's easy to see why Lamouchi has broken the glass on the proverbial panic button. Perhaps he's hoping the fear factor will sharpen a few minds within the camp.

Certainly, something drastic needs to change out on the pitch if Cardiff are to be playing Championship football next season.

But what would relegation to League One actually mean?

TV money

At present, Cardiff bank somewhere between £7m-£8m in TV money in the Championship, but that figure will be significantly cut in the third tier, with less TV cash filtering its way down to League One.

Under the terms of the EFL's current TV rights package, which runs until 2024, clubs in the Championship all earn £2.5m each, as well as a 'solidarity package' of around £4.5m.

There's then a few top-ups for clubs depending on how many times their matches are broadcast. These one-off payments for each match can range from £10,000 to £100,000 depending on whether that team happens to be playing home or away.

However, while clubs in League One still get the base payment of £2.5m, their solidarity payment is much lower, standing at an estimated £700,000.

Relegation will subsequently wipe at least a couple of million pounds straight off the club's revenue.

Crowds and commercial revenue

As a general rule, and barring a few notable examples, relegation goes hand-in-hand with lower attendances.

It's difficult to really predict the extent of the drop-off in interest that would happen if Cardiff ended up in League One at this stage, but the growing disconnect between fans, and the club's apparent inability to take fan concerns seriously, means that a reduction in attendances is surely likely.

The last time Cardiff were in third tier, their average crowd was around 13,000, just 2,000 below the current average.

If they succumb to relegation, it's not entirely unreasonable to expect a similar figure. Perhaps even worse.

Putting a number on the financial impact is tricky given the number of variables at play here. But there are other examples that can perhaps offer some indication on what to expect.

When discussing Sheffield Wednesday's drop down to League One and the drop in matchday revenue, Dr Dan Plumley, a senior lecturer in sports finance at Sheffield Hallam University, told The Athletic in 2021: "The first season after they were relegated, 2010-11, they averaged just under 18,000 in attendance — a drop of about 5,000 from the year before in the Championship. Given the way things are, you might take about four- or five-thousand off the attendance and that roughly translates to the loss of just under £2 million."

Such figures can't necessarily be applied directly to Cardiff and their situation, but they do give a reasonable idea as to what might be on the horizon.

In terms of commercial revenue, it's again difficult to really speculate on the full impact on the Cardiff's bottom line.

Local sponsors might well be more likely to stick by the club, but those whose motivation is to get their name out to a global audience - something that's still possible in the Championship - may now think twice.

Cuts to the squad

Cardiff have made serious attempts in trimming their wage bill recently, and the cost-cutting has admittedly had an effect on the quality of the squad this season. Certainly it meant Steve Morison had to get creative in his summer recruitment drive.

However, there is, rather alarmingly, a chance relegation may force the belt to be tightened even further.

Under EFL regulations, a club's player-related expenditure in League One cannot exceed 60 per cent of their overall turnover.

Yet again, at this stage, it's difficult to really get a full picture on the impact this measure would have on Cardiff's squad.

But there are already fears that relegation could leave the club with further financial limitations in terms of how they are able to operate in the transfer window.

What's more, you can make the argument that there aren't too many assets in this squad whose value would generate a sale capable of easing the financial burden.

It all means that assembling a squad capable of bouncing straight back up is by no means a given, and attracting the players capable of spearheading a promotion charge will potentially be much harder.

New manager?

There's not been a definitive indication on this yet.

But there's certainly an expectation that if Lamouchi cannot keep Cardiff in the second tier, he's unlikely to remain at the helm next season.

The brief handed to the Frenchman is simple - going down is not an option under any circumstances.

Should Cardiff go down, he will have failed to deliver on that brief, and it's difficult to see him being offered a long-term deal.

A reset isn't always the worst thing in the world after a relegation. But hiring a fourth manager in the space of a year would once again throw the direction of the club into uncertainty.

Cardiff is a club with a lot of potential, but it would be tough to sell it as an attractive proposition to an ambitious and up-and-coming manager.

Then again, if Lamouchi can steer this sinking ship to shore, and with 16 games left he still has time to do just that, all of these concerns will be forgotten.

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