A Pullback Unlike Anything Since 9/11
Canadian border crossings into the United States dropped from 39 million in 2024 to 29.1 million in 2025, a 25.4% collapse that Statistics Canada calls the deepest sustained decline in its border-crossing records outside the COVID-19 shutdown, dating back to when digital tracking began in 1972. The only comparable single moment came in September 2001, in the weeks after the September 11 attacks. The slide worsened through the first half of the year, hit its low point in July at nearly a third below the prior year, then leveled off around a quarter down for the remainder of 2025. Early 2026 numbers, per CBS News, suggest the pullback has settled in rather than reversed.
The drop-off tracks closely with President Trump's return to office and the trade disputes that followed. Prime Minister Mark Carney said in April 2025 that Trump's tariffs had already damaged Canada's auto and steel sectors and dragged on the broader economy. Tensions escalated further after Trump's repeated musing that Canada become the 51st U.S. state; at a May 2025 Oval Office meeting, Carney pushed back directly, telling Trump Canada "won't be for sale, ever."
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly disputed any link between administration policy and the travel decline, telling CBS the president has made American cities safer and drawn major events like the Los Angeles Olympics, the FIFA World Cup, and the country's 250th-anniversary celebrations.
Where the Vacation Budget Actually Went
Canadians didn't cut travel spending overall — they redirected it. Domestic spending inside Canada rose 8.7% to C$81.3 billion in 2025, while spending on overseas leisure trips jumped C$3.6 billion to C$22.8 billion, nearly half of all outbound leisure spending, according to StatCan. Trips to Europe climbed 13.6% and trips to Asia rose 16.7%. The cuts weren't uniform: leisure travel to the U.S. fell 21.5% (3.2 million fewer visits), while trips to see family dropped a smaller 9% (536,000 fewer visits) — Canadians clearly treated discretionary vacations differently than visits to relatives.
Total spending in the U.S. fell C$3.3 billion to C$18.8 billion. Axios converted that decline specifically to roughly US$2.3 billion; CBS separately reported the totals in dollar terms as $13.3 billion for 2025, down from nearly $15 billion in 2024, though it isn't clear from CBS's reporting whether that reflects the same exchange-rate conversion.
Border Towns Absorb the Loss
The damage concentrated in communities built around Canadian day-trippers and shoppers. In Kalispell, Montana, credit-card spending by Canadian visitors fell as much as 39% at points during 2025, though the tourism bureau's final year-end count settled at a 36% decline, with total international spending down 31% to $12 million, the Daily Inter Lake reported. Hotel bookings statewide across Montana fell 73% from January through March, according to Discover Kalispell's director. North Dakota's tourism office estimated a $13.4 million loss over the same period.
Traffic at Blaine, Washington fell roughly 25%, the steepest drop among major northern crossings, according to The Travel. A North Country Chamber of Commerce survey of New York border businesses found two-thirds already reporting fewer Canadian bookings as of March 2025. Some destinations tried to buy back goodwill: three downtown Las Vegas casinos began treating the Canadian dollar as equal to the U.S. dollar for hotel stays and gambling starting in January 2026, and California's tourism board partnered with Expedia on discounts reserved for Canadian travelers. Border Policy Research Institute director Laurie Trautman summed up the toll more bluntly, telling CBC News that border communities are "getting decimated."
The Bill, and Why It's Not Closing Anytime Soon
The U.S. Travel Association had warned in early 2025 that even a 10% drop in Canadian visits could cost the industry $2.1 billion in spending and 14,000 hospitality jobs — a figure distinct from the 140,000 total jobs the industry says Canadian tourism supports overall. The actual decline, measured against the trade group's own visitation data (a somewhat more conservative 22% versus StatCan's 25.4% border-crossing figure), came in more than double that warning, producing a hit Forbes estimated at roughly $4.5 billion.
Separately, the association's own November 2025 forecast projected a $5.7 billion decline in all international tourism spending for the year — a broader figure covering more than just Canadian visitors, not an independent confirmation of the Forbes number. Canada has long supplied roughly a quarter of all foreign visitors to the U.S., more than any other country. With StatCan's preliminary 2026 data showing crossings still near their depressed late-2025 levels, this looks less like a one-year dip than a durable shift in how Canadians vacation — for as long as the tariff dispute and political friction continue.
