Prime Minister Mark Carney has said Canada examined the possibility of US military action amid worsening tensions with President Donald Trump, arguing it would be 'irresponsible not to' prepare.
Carney made the remarks in an interview, published on Wednesday, 23 September 2026, while attending the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
The prime minister did not disclose what the examination involved. He described the prospect as an 'extreme tail risk,' meaning a highly unlikely event with potentially serious consequences, rather than a likely outcome.
Why Canada Assessed US Military Action Risk
The disclosure followed months of worsening relations between Ottawa and Washington. Trade talks collapsed in August, after which the US imposed 50 per cent tariffs on roughly $28 billion of Canadian goods.
Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on US imports on 25 August. They took effect on 8 September and covered about $27.6 billion of American goods, according to the Canadian government. The measures targeted sectors including steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics.
Carney previously described the trade dispute as an attack on Canada's economy. During an August press conference, he said, 'You're at war when you get attacked. We got attacked.'
His latest comments addressed a broader concern than tariffs. Asked whether his government had considered US military action, Carney said leaders have a responsibility to examine even extreme scenarios.
'I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,' he said. 'That's just risk management. That's not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to prepare.
Carney framed the assessment as risk management rather than a prediction of military conflict. He also said he and Trump continued to speak 'frequently,' despite the collapse of trade negotiations.
That combination is revealing, though not necessarily reassuring. The relationship remains active at the highest level, yet Ottawa is now openly discussing risks that would once have seemed politically impossible.
Trade Tensions Push Canada To Reconsider US Reliance
The interview placed the military assessment within a wider Canadian effort to reduce reliance on American systems and markets.
Carney said Canada was seeking alternatives to Starlink, the satellite communications network operated by SpaceX. He also said Ottawa was reviewing its reliance on the US-made F-35 fighter jet. Neither comment indicated that Canada had cancelled its F-35 programme.
The prime minister said Canada needed to diversify its international partnerships while keeping open the possibility of a new trade agreement with Washington. He argued that a mutually beneficial deal remained possible, pointing to Canada's potash supply as one area where both countries could cooperate.
'Is there a mutually beneficial trade deal between Canada and the US? Absolutely, absolutely there is one,' Carney said.
Canada's economic ties with the US cannot be unwound quickly. The two countries share deeply integrated supply chains, energy links and security arrangements.
Ottawa's approach is therefore less a clean break than an attempt to reduce its exposure to decisions made in Washington.
Trump's repeated comments about Canada becoming part of the United States have sharpened the dispute. He ruled out using military force to annex Canada in January 2025, while later saying he would consider using 'economic force' to pursue his goal of making Canada part of the US.
Carney's government has rejected the idea. Instead, Canada has pursued closer links with Europe, including discussions about energy, critical minerals, artificial intelligence and security.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed creating a new 'associate member' relationship for Canada. The arrangement could make Canada the first country to hold such a status, but the EU does not currently have this category and would need agreement from all 27 member states.
Trump criticised the proposal and warned that closer EU-Canada ties could be viewed as a 'hostile act.' The initiative forms part of Canada's broader effort to diversify its international partnerships.
What Carney's Statement Does Not Show
There is no indication that the US has ordered military action against Canada or that an invasion is imminent. Carney declined to explain what his government's examination involved, and Canadian officials have not publicly detailed any operational plan.
Defence Minister David McGuinty said all militaries analyse such risks. He characterised the assessment as a normal part of military risk management and declined to provide further details.
The idea also has historical precedents. Canada developed Defence Scheme No. 1 in 1921 as a contingency plan for a possible American invasion.
The United States later produced Plan Red, which considered a hypothetical conflict with the British Empire and included operations against Canadian targets. Neither plan was implemented as an actual US-Canada war.
Carney's comments do not indicate that Canada expects a US attack. Instead, they show that Ottawa has incorporated the possibility of military action into its broader assessment of risks arising from the deteriorating relationship with Washington.
