If you believe the hype, No. 9 Duke is simply fine-tuning its game against, at best, marginal opponents in the bottom-dwelling ACC as the juggernaut prepares for a deep run in the men’s NCAA tournament.
The reality, though, is that Duke has struggled to get back into Final Four-favorite form following a two-week COVID-19 pause just before Christmas.
Since then, the Blue Devils have dropped two games—to Miami and Florida State—and have yet to look the part of the big, bad hardcourt bully.
The road gets even more difficult on Saturday, when Mike Krzyzewski makes his final appearance across town at the Dean Smith Center to face sworn rivals North Carolina.
As it stands, most of the hype surrounding Krzyzewski’s Chapel Hill swan song will be restricted to the national telecast.
In true Tobacco Road rivalry form, the Tar Heels aren’t planning to formally honor the Hall of Famer; multiple schools this season have given Krzyzewski gift presentations and standing ovations prior to the tip.
Still, pomp and circumstance aside, with North Carolina hungry for a résumé-building win and Duke looking to turn the proverbial corner back toward dominance, multiple variables will need to be in play in order to emerge victorious.
Bob Donnan; Jamie Rhodes/USA TODAY Sports
The case for North Carolina
The Tar Heels are at their best when they play at home (12–0 this season) and through Armando Bacot, a rebound gobbler who leads the league with 12.6 a game. That stat tends to turn into offense for Bacot and the Tar Heels, and it just happens to be the area where Duke can be most susceptible. Bacot is coming off a career-high 22-rebound performance in a 90–83 overtime win over Louisville on the road. His frontcourt mate Brady Manek tied a season-high with 24 points in the win.
That kind of production and intentional focus gives Hubert Davis his best chance at grabbing his first Quad 1 win.
Manek’s ability to stretch the defense will likely draw out one of Duke’s top rebounders and rim protectors, giving Bacot more opportunity to dominate the offensive glass. Let’s not forget that Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe snatched 12 offensive rebounds in the season opener against Duke. That said, the Wildcats lost, and in order for the Tar Heels to avoid the same fate they’ll need Caleb Love to be stellar … again.
In two wins over Duke last season, Love posted a combined 43 points, including going 6 for 11 from three and adding 14 assists. He’ll be eager to shake off the stench of his 3-for-18 shooting performance in the Louisville win. His backcourt mate RJ Davis was a marksman from three (4 for 8) against the Cards and Leaky Black had one of his best games this season (13 points, five rebounds and four assists).
It's no secret that Hubert Davis heavily relies on his starters for production, so to say all five will need to be clicking on all cylinders isn’t a stretch. That said, in a game of this magnitude, he’ll need his bench. That means giving the reserve players opportunities and them capitalizing—specifically, Kerwin Walton.
The case for Duke
By now we all know that Duke can score. The Blue Devils boast the potential No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA draft in Paolo Banchero, whose all-around game makes him the focal point of the opposing team’s defense and thus opens up scoring opportunities for the rest of Duke’s stars.
Duke leads the league in scoring (80.4 per game) and assists (17.5 per game), but it’s the Blue Devils’ defense that has taken the first step toward returning to its dominant pre-COVID-19 pause form.
The Blue Devils lead the league in blocks (5.5 per game), allow just 64.7 points a game and lock up the three-point line better than any team in the league, holding opponents to just 29% this season. In their win over Notre Dame, the top three-point shooting team in the ACC, the Blue Devils held the Irish to a 3-for-18 mark and 43 total points, the Irish’s lowest offensive output at home in the shot clock era.
Back to Banchero.
To say his fluidity and versatility on the offensive end has been a problem for opponents this season would be underselling it, to say the least, and him putting Manek and Bacot in isolations on an island bodes extremely well for Duke. Also, the emergence of AJ Griffin has been key for Duke’s offense.
In his last four games, Griffin has scored 55 points and shot 11 of 17 from the three-point line. Trevor Keels is back from the lower leg injury, Jeremy Roach stepped up in his absence and Wendell Moore Jr. is the x-factor that shows up every night.
Yes, Duke is facing the ACC’s top rebounder and rebounding team, but when you’re a close second in that column you tend to worry less. Mark Williams, the league’s top shot-blocker, can neutralize Bacot’s effectiveness, and Duke’s pressure and physicality should slow North Carolina’s backcourt and trademark fastbreak offense.
The Verdict
You’ll likely be oversaturated with some variation of the “throw out the records in this rivalry” message headed into the game, and, to a large degree, that’s true.
In a normal year, the Battle of the Blues is the hottest ticket of the college basketball season, with a severe dislike among both fan bases, physical altercations between teams and even bloodshed in the storied rivalry.
Add in the “Coach K’s final ride” storyline, and the fact that the series is knotted at 50–50 in the last 100 meetings, and it only heightens the emotion. The thing is, when said emotions subside by the second TV timeout, North Carolina will have a problem.
It’s the same problem most teams facing the Blue Devils have had this season, and one to which there’s been no remedy: Banchero.
Bacot can contend with Williams, Love can matchup with Keels, Black can slow down Moore and Davis can spy Griffin, but Banchero’s size and skill set is a different animal for a team with a short bench. The freshman does have lapses of settling on the perimeter at times, but when he works inside-out, he’s unstoppable and the entire offense opens around him.
The Tar Heels have had lulls at times this season that have gotten them blown out; that type of lapse could spell doom against Duke’s potent offense. As North Carolina coach Hubert Davis said regarding Duke on Thursday, “They’re just dangerous!”
The Tar Heels will have to catch fire from the perimeter and go well north of their average of 8.4 makes per game against the league’s stingiest perimeter defense. To be clear: North Carolina can win.
But the truth is, based on all the evidence presented this season, this case is more about what North Carolina will have to do to beat Duke and less about which team has the best chance of winning.
And that is the most damning evidence of all.
