Scotland‘s World Cup hopes are on the brink after finishing third in Group C following a 3-0 defeat to Brazil - and their fate is out of their hands.
Steve Clarke’s side defeated Haiti in their opening match before a slim 1-0 loss to Morocco. A dispiriting defeat to Brazil left them with just three points and a goal difference of -3, as well as an agonising wait to determine if they’ll make it into the knockout rounds.
From 12 groups only the best eight third placed finishers will progress meaning Scotland need four teams to finish third with fewer than three points or a worse goal difference than them (-3) to qualify.
The Scots may not know their fate until the final group stage matches have been played meaning a wait until Sunday and the conclusion of Group J’s fixtures. South Africa’s victory over South Korea in Group A is already a significant blow.
How can Scotland qualify for the knockout rounds?
Following their defeat to Brazil, Scotland’s progress to the next stage of the tournament - which would put them in the knockout rounds for the very first time - is out of their hands.
Over the next few day, certain results will need to fall in their favour in order for them to book a spot in the last-32, but what scenarios from each group will hand the Scots a place in the next stage of the competition? Scotland need at least four results to go their way.
Here is how the third-placed sides currently stand:
Thursday 25 June
Fixtures
Curacao vs Ivory Coast (Group E) – 9pm BST
Ecuador vs Germany (Group E) – 9pm BST
Japan vs Sweden (Group F) - 12am BST
Tunisia vs Netherlands (Group F) - 12am BST
Paraguay vs Australia (Group D) - 3am BST
Turkey vs USA (Group D) - 3am BST
What Scotland need:
In Group E, Ecuador and Curacao have one point apiece and play Germany and Ivory Coast respectively. Failure to win would mean whoever finishes third would have a lower total than Scotland's three points. Scotland require both Ecuador and Curacao failing to win.
In Group F, the current third placed team, Sweden, have three points and face Japan who are second with four. Japan need to win that match and to such an extent that Sweden’s goal difference (currently 0) is worse than Scotland’s (-3). Sweden would still have the advantage on goals scored, though, so Scotland require a four-goal Japan victory.
In Group D, Australia and Paraguay are second and third but meet in their final game. The losers of that match would end the group with three points, while a draw would leave both sides on four and ahead of Scotland. The Tartan Army therefore need Australia to win by two goals.
Friday 25 June
Fixtures
Norway vs France (Group I) – 8pm BST
Senegal vs Iraq (Group I) – 8pm BST
Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia (Group H) - 1am BST
Uruguay vs Spain (Group H) – 1am BST
Egypt vs Iran (Group G) – 4am BST
New Zealand vs Belgium (Group G) – 4am BST
What Scotland need
In Group I, a draw between Senegal and Iraq would be the ideal result. Iraq would need to win 3-0 to qualify while for Senegal, even a one-goal win would be enough. Scotland require a draw between Senegal and Iraq, or a narrow Iraq win.
In Group H, while at least one of Cape Verde or Saudi Arabia are guaranteed to better Scotland’s total, a victory for Spain against Uruguay would result in the third-placed team only finishing on two points. Scotland require a Spain win.
Group G sees the crucial match played between Egypt v Iran. A win for Egypt means the team finishing third, either Iran or Belgium, will have fewer than Scotland’s three points. Scotland require an Egypt win.
Saturday 26 June
Fixtures
Croatia vs Ghana (Group L) – 10pm BST
Panama vs England (Group L) – 10pm BST
Colombia vs Portugal (Group K) – 12.30am BST
DR Congo vs Uzbekistan (Group K) – 12.30am BST
Algeria vs Austria (Group J) – 3am BST
Jordan vs Argentina (Group J) – 3am BST
What Scotland need:
In Group L. Should Croatia earn a point or better against Ghana then the third-place finisher would have more points than Scotland. Scotland need Ghana to beat Croatia by three goals.
Group K sees DR Congo and Uzbekistan face off for third place. A draw would be ideal or a narrow win for Uzbekistan who have a goal difference of -7. If DR Congo win they will finish third with four points. Scotland need DR Congo to fail to win.
In Group J, Austria and Algeria sit second and third respectively and both have three points. Algeria have the worse goal difference heading into their meeting so Scotland need an Austria win, and by two goals.
Here are the full group stage standings:
Who will Scotland play in the knockout rounds if they advance?
There are still plenty of scenarios and results which will influence Scotland’s route through the knockout rounds should they get there. But, having finished third in Group C, they are set to face Group A winners Mexico in the last-32.
If Steve Clarke’s men win that tie they could then face England in the round of 16, providing Thomas Tuchel’s men finish top of Group L and then defeat Algeria in the last-32. If the Scots defeat their old enemy, then a rematch against Brazil could be on the cards otherwise they could face one of Japan, Ivory Coast or Norway in the quarter-finals as things stand.
