Pakistan is trying to bring both sides back to the negotiating table after peace talks between the US and Iran ended without an agreement at the weekend.
Both the US and Iran could return to Islamabad as early as Thursday, a source aware of the talks says, adding that no firm plans are yet in place.
The war, now in its seventh week, has jolted markets and rattled the global economy as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been cut off, while airstrikes have torn through military and civilian infrastructure across the region.
Iran and the US came “very close” to an agreement and were “80 per cent there” during last weekend's meeting in Pakistan's capital Islamabad, held four days after the announcement of a ceasefire, sources say. It was the first direct encounter between US and Iranian officials in more than a decade, and the most senior engagement since Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution.
US vice president JD Vance represented the administration of US president Donald Trump. Iran was represented by parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and foreign minister Abbas Araqchi.
US president Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, had done a “great job” of moderating the first round of talks, and suggested his team was set to return to Islamabad for round two.
"I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead," Trump said, suggesting that it might not be necessary to extend the current ceasefire beyond 21 April.
Officials from Pakistan, Iran and the Gulf also said negotiating teams from the US and Iran could return to Pakistan later this week, although one senior Iranian source said no date had been set.
“We have reached out to Iran and got a positive response that they will be open to a second round of talks,” a senior official in the Pakistani government says. Officials say they have sent a proposal to both US and Iran to re-send their delegates to resume the talks.
Vance said the US wanted to make a “grand bargain”, but that the two sides’ relationship was marked by a lot of mistrust. "You are not going to solve that problem overnight," he said.
Meanwhile, giant hoardings with “Islamabad Talks” written on them still hang outside the luxurious venue of the Hotel Serena in the capital.
"No firm date has been set, with the delegations keeping Friday through Sunday open," a senior Iranian source told Reuters. The chatter within Islamabad circles is that the Pakistani government is continuing to push the Americans and the Iranians to once again sit down to reach an agreement and an extension to the ceasefire, if not a complete resolution.
"There were ups and downs [in the first round]. There were tense moments. People left the room, and then came back," the security source said. Pakistani representatives, including Munir and foreign minister Ishaq Dar, moved between the sides through the night to keep things on track, Pakistani sources told the agency.
“Pakistani officials are engaged with both the countries and still pursuing their efforts. Despite no breakthrough, it has seen success: we have seen that no airstrikes have resumed from Israel or America on Iran so far,” Abdullah Khan, managing director at the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies, tells The Independent, adding that Pakistan also persuaded Iran to not target the Gulf nations anymore.
It is enough progress to suggest a second round is worthwhile, Khan says. “The Americans have clearly given their list to the Iranians and there’s little that needs to be agreed to. We can say that the majority of the issues were agreed upon and on the nuclear issue and some critical ones that need agreeing to.”
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear programme, and international sanctions were among the top concerns for Vance. The major transit point for global energy supplies was blocked by Iran after the US attacked the Islamic Republic and killed its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The US has pushed for Iran to give up its nuclear ambitions and proposed a 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment by Iran as part of a proposed nuclear agreement. Iranian officials reportedly countered with a significantly shorter period – a 5-year freeze on the programme, Axios reported.
Vance told Iranian officials that they should dismantle all major nuclear enrichment facilities, turn over its highly enriched uranium, accept a broader peace, agree a security framework that includes regional allies, end funding for regional proxies, and fully open Hormuz without charging an exorbitant toll.
In return, Iran said the US should guarantee a permanent ceasefire, ban future strikes on Iran and its allies in the region, the lifting of primary and secondary sanctions, the unfreezing of all assets, recognition of its right to enrichment, and continued Iranian control of Hormuz, sources told Reuters.
The standoff deepened on Tuesday as the US declared it had blockaded Iran's ports and Tehran threatened to strike targets across the region.
Yet Trump – who is also seeking an off-ramp out of the conflict – has said a deal is preferable to a return to airstrikes.
"It could end either way, but I think a deal is preferable because then they [Iran] can rebuild," Trump said, according to a post by ABC News reporter Jonathan Karl on X. "They really do have a different regime now. No matter what, we took out the radicals."
Pakistan still has some wiggle room when it comes to bringing the two sides together, says Pakistani diplomat Asif Durrani.
“On the uranium enrichment issue... the US demands 20 years, while Iran has offered five years. Somewhere in the middle of the road perhaps some agreement is possible, say 10 years,” the former Pakistani ambassador to the UAE and Iran says.
“Hopefully good sense will prevail as the US has realised it does not enjoy the geographical advantage which Iran has and neither does Israel. More importantly, neither Israel nor the US are ready to put their boots on the ground. If that's the situation, it's a stalemate for the US and for Israel,” he says.
“It (Pakistan) enjoys loyalty to Iran as the only regional ally and has a great deal of trust with the Trump administration. Vice president JD Vance went on Fox News last night and he praised the Pakistani government, specifically naming the prime minister and chief of defence forces. It shows that Pakistan will continue to play that role until that deal is done as far as the negotiation is concerned,” says Dr Kamran Bokhari, senior resident fellow at the Middle East Policy Council in Washington, DC.
He adds that it only makes sense for Pakistan to host another round of talks as a third party mediator.
And if there are signs of a breakthrough this time around, the US president himself could make a grand entry at the talks, he suggests.
“The President of the United States will only come if there's a deal to be signed and not if this is just another meeting. He will show up once most things are settled, and in fact, almost all things are settled, and then it's just there for, you know, the signing ceremony,” Bokhari says.
Until that point is reached, he says, the expectation is that it will be Vance again alongside other senior diplomats who could return to Islamabad to try and thrash out a deal.
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