One of the challenges facing Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour government is reforming a costly and dysfunctional asylum system. Rob McNeil, deputy director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, spoke to FRANCE 24 on the new government’s possible next steps to address record levels of irregular migration and a growing backlog of asylum claims.
Britain’s Labour Party officially came to power on Friday after 14 years in opposition. Now that it has the reins of government, Labour will have to pick up the pieces of a broken asylum system, including the Conservative Party’s controversial Rwanda policy.
Labour campaigned on the promise that it would put an end to the scheme, which called for sending asylum seekers to Rwanda, where they would file their claims for admittance to the UK. The policy created a new and growing backlog of asylum claims after being deemed unlawful by the United Kingdom’s Supreme Court. Close to 120,000 people are meanwhile waiting for an initial decision on their asylum claims – three times the number in 2019, according to an analysis of Home Office figures by the Migration Observatory.
The other pressing task for Prime Minister Keir Starmer will be to address the issue of people crossing the English Channel in small boats from France, with record numbers of migrants reaching England in 2024 despite former prime minister Rishi Sunak’s promise to “stop the boats”. Starmer has pledged to “smash the gangs” responsible for sending people on the dangerous journey from across the Channel. More than 200 migrants have died trying to cross the Channel over the past decade, with at least 14 deaths in 2024.
While Labour wants to put the focus on improved law enforcement and fighting trafficking networks, the new government will quickly need to decide the fates of the tens of thousands of people who have entered the UK by irregular means since at least 2018, when significant numbers began being detected. This includes deciding whether migrants should be granted asylum – and, if not, what the other options are. FRANCE 24 spoke to Rob McNeil, deputy director at the Migration Observatory on how Labour might approach the issue.
While Conservative supporters say immigration is their top priority, the Labour electorate places the issue fifth. Could this translate to more flexible and humane measures on immigration in the future?
Migration is important for many people around the country irrespective of the party they vote for, but traditionally, supporters of the two main parties (Labour and the Tories) don’t have the same degree of focus on the issue. In the past, Labour voters haven’t been as motivated by migration as Conservative supporters. But a lot of traditional Conservative constituencies voted Labour this time. Given the scale of Labour victories in traditionally Conservative areas such as North East Somerset, it may be that many people who are more concerned about migration issues voted Labour this time. We will have to see whether that will have an impact on Labour's approach to migration.
There are certain events we can predict. Summer is upon us, and the small boat arrivals are likely to increase. There have been some suggestions of a "Biden effect", in which the new leadership of a country by a party that is perceived to be more open to migrants might incentivise more people to risk travelling to seek asylum in that country. But evidence shows that asylum seekers don’t always have a very clear knowledge of their destination country's immigration policies.
If there is a big increase in Channel arrivals, these are very visible, and they tend to stimulate public concerns. If so, we can expect public pressure on the government to do more to control irregular migration. Starmer’s approach has been to “smash the gangs”, a strategy that is not dramatically different from the Conservatives’ approach. One problem with this enforcement-based approach is that there is no evidence to suggest that after “smashing the gangs”, other gangs wouldn’t come to replace them
The clear difference between the two parties is Labour’s promise to cancel the Rwanda plan, which has not forcibly removed a single migrant from the UK but was intended to be a deterrent. Labour says it will deter people who do not have a valid claim for asylum from crossing the Channel by processing asylum claims swiftly and removing people whose claims are unsuccessful – this can be hard to do in practice.
On the other hand, could parties on the right – like Reform UK – push Labour to adopt more draconian policies?
With only five members in parliament, Reform UK aren’t likely to stop Labour from passing new laws. Reform have looked quite threatening to the Conservatives, but the idea that their policies are threatening to Labour doesn’t seem likely. Whether this drives the Conservatives to the right depends on the post-election thinking of the remaining Conservative MPs and party members.
In other words, Labour will have no particular need to listen to Reform because it is in a strong position (Labour won 412 seats, up 207 on their total from the 2019 election).
A more complex issue will be internal discussions on migration policy within Labour. Starmer’s policy has been somewhat consistent with the Conservatives’ policies: tackling irregular migration through enforcement and reducing small boat arrivals through policing. This may not be popular with all Labour members.
There are also questions about whether Labour's plans to reduce legal net migration through training of UK workers will be effective – but the expected trajectory of UK net migration is downwards, anyway, from the current historically high levels.
How could the Labour victory – and the results of France’s second round of snap legislative elections – affect the cooperation that currently exists with France to dismantle the networks trafficking migrants across the Channel?
We are going to have to wait and see. The UK and France both have an interest in combatting the international organised crime networks responsible for people-smuggling. Looking back at 2000, the Labour Party and [former French president] Nicolas Sarkozy worked together to close the Sangatte refugee camp, so irrespective of the political parties in charge on either side of the Channel there is scope for cooperation. But this will depend on diplomacy, so we must wait and see.
