India is likely to overtake China as the world’s most populous country in 2023—if it hasn't already. It will be the first shake-up at the top of the globe's population rankings in centuries—one that reflects the two country's divergent demographic and economic trajectories. India is expected to continue growing, in terms of both population and economy. China, meanwhile, is unlikely to return to its heady pre-pandemic GDP growth rates, and on Tuesday reported its first population decline since 1961.
The UN expects the gap between Nos. 1 and 2 to only grow from here, with India’s population swelling to 1.7 billion by 2050, compared to China’s 1.3 billion. (The U.S. will remain a distant third with a projected 375 million people by mid-century.)
