Three months into deadly protests in New Caledonia – sparked by a proposed constitutional reform that reignited tensions over independence – confrontations in the French territory persist, and its economy is in shambles. President Emmanuel Macron wants to hold talks in September, but does the government have anything to offer?
Roadblocks remain widespread across New Caledonia, and police continue to clash with independence activists, who began protesting three months ago against a proposed reform of voting rights.
Indigenous Kanaks argue that the reform would dilute their voting power, making it harder to achieve independence in any future referendum.
Macron has defended the reform as necessary for improving democracy, even as the government declared a state of emergency in response to protests that escalated into violence, looting and arson.
Despite deploying thousands of police and gendarmes, the French government has struggled to fully quell the violence. On Thursday, police shot dead a suspected gunman during clashes in the eastern town of Thio, marking the 11th fatality since the unrest began.
Push for dialogue
In late July, Macron told a delegation of New Caledonian lawmakers that he would hold discussions with all parties involved to address the situation, but only after the Paris 2024 Olympic Games and once France has a new government.
In June, Macron suspended the electoral reform after dissolving parliament to hold elections that ended without a clear majority in the National Assembly, leaving France in political uncertainty.
Even with a new government, it remains unclear what France can offer either side in New Caledonia. Macron’s decision to suspend the voting reform in June, halting its passage but not removing it entirely, satisfied neither pro- nor anti-independence groups.
Sinking economy
Meanwhile, New Caledonia’s economy has taken a hit from the violence, with the government reporting €2.2 billion in damage. Hundreds of businesses and public buildings have been destroyed by fire or looted, leaving thousands unemployed.
One in four residents is now receiving full or part-time unemployment benefits, and a growing number of people are leaving the territory. In 2024 alone, some 6,000 people – around 2.5 percent of the population – left New Caledonia, David Guyenne, president of the local chamber of commerce, told FranceInfo on Friday.
Tourism, a key revenue source, has plummeted, and one of the territory’s three nickel factories announced it would close at the end of the month, laying off 1,200 workers.
Money can't solve crisis
The French state has provided funding for businesses affected by the looting and has lent millions of euros to the local government, which was already in debt before the crisis began.
However, financial aid alone is unlikely to address the deeper issues plaguing New Caledonia.
“The answer is not just to inject liquidity, it is to rebuild differently,” pro-independence MP Emmanuel Tjibaou told Nouvelle-Calédonie La Première local radio on Monday.
“If we think the answer is just about cash flow, we will end up with the same issues in 30 years.”
