FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — The three Democratic candidates for Florida governor are talking to voters, offering optimistic sound bites to interviewers, and courting financial donors — selling themselves and the premise that they really, truly have a chance to defeat Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Other Democrats aren’t so sanguine.
Six months before the Aug. 23 primary in which Democratic voters will choose a nominee to go up against DeSantis and nine months before mail voting and in-person early voting will be underway for the Nov. 8 general election, their assessment is far different: The Republican governor’s reelection seems all-but-certain.
Not only are Democrats facing a formidable Republican incumbent, they are running into powerful headwinds that make victory much harder for them to reach.
“DeSantis is ahead, and he has every advantage in the world,” said Democratic strategist Sean Phillippi, who has worked for many political campaigns, in South Florida and statewide. “I would be surprised if the trajectory of the race changed to any point where DeSantis was in trouble.”
The assessment from Phillippi and other Democrats is shared by independent analysts, who don’t give the ultimate nominee — Charlie Crist, Nikki Fried or Annette Taddeo — much of a chance.
“Not unless they get a little help from upstairs, no,” said Jim Kane, a pollster for Democratic and Republican clients and former adjunct professor teaching graduate students in political science at the University of Florida.
“There’s always hope — but you have to be realistic,” said Sean Foreman, a Barry University political scientist.
But state Sen. Shevrin Jones, a Democrat who represents part of South Broward and northern Miami-Dade County and recently launched an effort to increase the number of minority voters using vote-by-mail, said his party can’t give up.
“I’m not writing it off,” Jones said. “I believe there’s a lot of potential in Florida, and a lot of momentum that’s happening,” he said, adding, “I totally reject the premise of people saying this is going to be a bloodbath for Democrats.”
Even Jones offered a note of uncertainty. “I just hope that the Democrats, we can figure this out.”
Early 2022 snapshot
February polls from two highly rated survey research organizations this month show DeSantis ahead of any of the potential Democratic nominees.
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy reported Feb. 15 that DeSantis was running 8 to 16 percentage points ahead of Crist, Fried and Taddeo in head-to-head matchups.
The Suffolk University Political Research Center, in a Feb. 1 poll for the USA TODAY Florida Network reported the governor with 6- to 11-point leads over Crist and Fried.
Although the numbers – including the 51%-43% result Mason-Dixon shows for a DeSantis-Crist matchup — don’t look like a blowout, analysts said that belies the reality of major Republican advantages and Democratic disadvantages.
Money is one.
As a national figure — popular with the Republican base, considered a likely future presidential candidate, facing no internal party opposition to his reelection — DeSantis has turned into a fundraising juggernaut.
As of Feb. 1, DeSantis had a combined total of $81.5 million in his two political committees — more than nine times the cash held by the Crist, Fried and Taddeo combined.
DeSantis raised $9.99 million in January. The three Democrats raised a combined total of $1.23 million. (Taddeo, a state senator, had to stop fundraising during the annual legislative session that started Jan. 11.)
DeSantis advantage
DeSantis is exceedingly popular with the Republican Party base, thanks largely to a brand of populism in which he fashions himself as standing up for freedom against supposed threats from liberals, President Joe Biden and the “corporate” news media.
He’s also deft at commanding attention and dominating news coverage — that often amplifies the theme’s he’s pushing — the way Donald Trump did as a presidential candidate and while in office. And he’s become a star to the political right on social media and cable TV channels.
Mason-Dixon’s poll reported 89% of Florida Republicans approve of DeSantis’ job performance as governor. Just 9% disapprove.
And, political strategists and independent analysts say, the way to win elections in the current era is to have an enthusiastic base of supporters who are motivated to show up when it comes time to vote. The political strategy of attempting a broader appeal to centrist voters, with the idea of expanding the number of potential supporters on Election Day, is largely a relic of the past.
“If you look at every election, if you bring your people out, you win,” said Chris Smith of Fort Lauderdale, a former state legislator who was the Democratic Party leader in the House and then the Senate. “They’ve figured out if I can just get my people out I can win this thing. So let me feed my beast and let me get my people out.”
It’s also a strategy that serves DeSantis’ broader objective: attracting national attention and support among Republican Party voters he’ll need for an expected 2024 candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination.
Incumbency also affords DeSantis significant advantages, including state resources such as taxpayer-funded aircraft to get him around the state for official appearances which he then uses to spread his political message.
DeSantis is the beneficiary of a major shift in Florida voters: For the first time in the state’s modern history, the number of Republican registered voters overtook the number of Democratic registered voters in October.
As the number of Florida residents increase, both parties have more registered voters than the used to, but Republicans have increased their ranks at a faster pace than Democrats.
In mid-term elections, candidates from the party that doesn’t occupy the presidency usually have gains. With Biden increasingly unpopular, Democrats are widely seen as facing a dismal environment this fall. Mason-Dixon’s February poll found 55% of Florida voters disapprove of Biden’s performance; 40% approve.
Compounding that, midterm election turnout always drops for both parties compared with presidential elections, but Democratic falloff is usually far greater than for Republicans.
“He has every single advantage. And I don’t see a path at this point where any Democrat could beat him,” Phillippi said.
Democrats’ dream
Smith said victory isn’t impossible.
“I’m not of the DeSantis-is-going-to-win, he’s up it the polls, he’ll beat everybody category,” Smith said. “As long as you’re in it, you don’t know how events are going to stack up as it gets closer.”
Aubrey Jewett, a political scientist at the University of Central Florida, said Florida’s voting history in recent decades, Biden’s approval ratings and head-to-head matchups in polling make DeSantis favored to win.
“That doesn’t mean that the Dems are out of it or should give up. You never know what might happen in a campaign. The issues change. Candidates, even favorite candidates, sometimes tumble. Self-inflicted wounds happen,” Jewett said. “I think Dems still do have a chance.”
It’s not impossible to come up with a scenario in which a Democrat defeats DeSantis, but it’s difficult.
Among the things analysts said would have to happen:
— Registering voters. Democrats have launched a major effort to increase the number of registered voters. In announcing the effort, party leaders said it would be better-funded and more far reaching than anything they’ve done before. In 2019, the state Democratic Party chairwoman announced a similar effort that didn’t produce results.
— Biden turnaround. A change in the president’s approval, perhaps occasioned by a change in the coronavirus pandemic and the way people assess government’s response or a reduction in the rate of inflation that makes people feel better about their economic situations.
— More enthusiasm. Reversing what Phillippi said is an “enthusiasm gap” between Democratic and Republican voters.
Kane said a reversal of fortunes would require some big, unforeseen development that captures public attention. “I don’t see that on the horizon.”
Money
No one expects a Florida Democratic nominee to reach DeSantis-level fundraising. But, analysts said, that isn’t necessary. The nominee needs enough money to get out a message. “Once you reach a certain saturation level, spending more money doesn’t help you more,” Jewett said. “The main thing will be whether Dems can raise enough money to get their message out.”
But the question is, will the Democratic nominee have enough?
The way the race is currently polling, Smith said, “you don’t get national money.” If it starts getting closer, he said that could change.
It’s becoming harder for Democrats to sell donors at the national level on the notion that it’s worth continuing to spend money in Florida.
From 2002 through 2020, Republicans won 25 statewide elections and Democrats won just six. Currently, the only statewide office held by a Democrat is agriculture commissioner. They haven’t won a top-tier race in Florida since 2012, when then-President Barack Obama and then-U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson prevailed. Florida hasn’t elected a Democrat as governor since 1994.
But giving up on Florida has major implications: in the 2024 presidential election, it will award 30 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
“There are some who realize that Florida is a tougher nut to crack now than in past cycles. And silently may be willing to pass on spending resources in Florida. But there are others who believe that that day is coming when Democrats will win the governor’s mansion again, and so they’re willing to go all in,” Foreman said.
Change happens
Though DeSantis is the clear favorite for reelection, what was expected has suddenly changed in recent Florida elections.
In 2018, DeSantis upended the Republican Party, defeating the establishment’s anointed candidate for the nomination for governor.
In 2018, none of the public opinion polls showed the ultimate Democratic nominee, Andrew Gillum, in first place. (Jewett said primary polling is often unreliable. It’s exceedingly difficult to come up with a good model of who is actually going to vote in a party primary.)
Also in 2018, billionaire Jeff Greene entered the race for the Democratic nomination for governor less that 12 weeks before the primary, dramatically shaking up the race. Many Democrats and independent analysts believe his attack on then-frontrunner Gwen Graham ended up damaging her enough that she narrowly lost the nomination to Gillum. Greene ended up finishing in a distant fourth place.
In 2010, Rick Scott didn’t declare his candidacy for the Republican nomination for governor until April. He spent $73 million of his and his family’s money on the campaign, defeating the Republican Party establishment’s candidate for the nomination, and wining the November election. He won reelection (against Crist) in 2014, and in 2020 won a term in the U.S. Senate.
Outlook
Republicans are confident.
“Republicans love Governor DeSantis because he is a fearless conservative who will not play the games Democrats orchestrate. Gov. DeSantis’ courage is contagious and his refreshing common-sense approach to solving problems resonates with a growing number of Florida GOP voters which is at historic levels statewide,” Helen Aguirre Ferré, executive director of the Republican Party of Florida, said via email.
Still, the state has seen exceedingly close elections. Democrat Gillum came in 0.4 points behind Republican DeSantis in 2018. Democrat Crist came in 1 percentage point behind then-Republican Gov. Rick Scott in 2014.
“It’s not like his reelection is a mortal lock,” Jewett said.
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