Andy Burnham has been cleared to stand in the upcoming by-election in Makerfield, paving the way for him to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership.
Mr Burnham won approval of Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) to stand, having previously blocked him from running in February’s by-election in Gorton and Denton, on Friday. The decision came after Josh Simons announced he would quit parliament to make way for the Manchester mayor to run in his seat.
He awaits confirmation as Labour’s official candidate for the contest, with reports widely indicating he will be successful in this. But one hurdle remains in Mr Burnham’s path to WestminsterL winning the by-election against Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
Long seen as a Labour safe seat, Wigan’s Makerfield has been in the party’s hands since its creation in 1983.
However, Mr Simons won the seat by a majority of just 5,399 over Reform UK at the 2024 general election. Since then, Labour’s polling has collapsed, while Reform’s has surged.
This month’s local elections saw Mr Farage’s party win every council ward in the Makerfield constituency, securing around half the vote. Labour was left trailing behind, having secured little more than a quarter of the ballots.
Former health secretary Wes Streeting has backed Mr Burnham as Labour’s “best chance” of winning the by-election, despite allies of the former health secretary insisting he too will join any leadership contest.
A recent forecast by Survation would support this assessment, with the polling group finding that Labour has a 67 per cent chance of winning the seat with the Greater Manchester mayor as candidate – compared to a 0 per cent chance without.
Mr Burnham is recorded as the UK’s most popular politician by pollsters YouGov, with 35 per cent of people having a positive opinion of him. By contrast, Sir Keir Starmer’s popularity sits at 19 per cent, and Mr Streeting’s at just 12.
The public support for Mr Burnham is thought to be even more pronounced in the northwest, with many locals approving of his record as mayor since 2017.
Speaking about the veteran chances, pollster Sir John Curtice told The Independent: “You have a personality who can attract attention, make local politics seem much more connected with voters, and who is able to provide a senes of strategic direction.
“His performances in the mayoral elections go beyond what you would expect”, he added, “you expect a Labour candidate to win, but you wouldn't necessarily expect him to do as well as he was doing.”
Another obstacle that could hit Mr Burnham’s chances is the rise in support for the Green Party, which saw the second-highest vote share at the recent local elections and saw an historic victory in Gorton and Denton earlier this year.
Zack Polanski’s party has said a search for a candidate in Makerfield is already underway, dampening hopes in the Burnham camp that it might step aside to ensure the progressive vote is not split in favour of Reform.
The Greens stormed to victory in Gorton and Denton with 41 per cent of the vote, to Reform’s 29 per cent and Labour’s 25 per cent. However, a poll carried out by Survation after the event found that if Mr Burham had been Labour’s candidate, it would have taken 47 per cent, leaving the Greens on 25 per cent.
Sir John has said Labour would have a “less than 5 per cent chance” in the Makerfield by-election “if it were anyone other than Andy Burnham”. He added that it is one of the tightest Labour-Reform contests and a “much tougher” election to win than Gorton and Denton.
The figures would suggest overwhelming support for Mr Burnham in the region. But one factor that could work against him is feelings by Makerfield’s constituents that he is using the seat as a springboard to the top job. This is a difficult variable to estimate, but a clearer picture will undoubtedly emerge in the months leading up to the contest.
Speaking to BBC Manchester on Friday, Mr Simons acknowledged the contest would be “a really, really, really tough fight”, adding he did not know what the result would be.
He said: “Sometimes in history, when people take risks, and they say, ‘I think this is the right fight to have, but I don’t know if we’re going to win it’, that’s what changes the story. That’s what changes the course of things.”
The election could also prove expensive, especially as a victory for Mr Burnham would trigger another by-election for the Greater Manchester mayoralty.
A by-election in Makerfield alone could cost the taxpayer up to £226,000, the maximum amount the area’s returning officer can claim from the Treasury to cover the cost of running the poll.
But the cost of a mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester would run into the millions, with the 2024 mayoral race costing the taxpayer £4.7m.
Sir John reflects: “There will certainly be lots of unhappy Labour voters in Makerfield. Whether or not he can make a pitch to them that says: 'look at the end of the day you're really true red Labour; we're the party that epitomises your values.'
“I expect he'll talk a lot about Labour values and rediscovering the party's spirit, and the kind of implicit message will be 'if you want to have real Labour back then you need to send me to Westminster'
“But he's going to have to do that without, I think, explicitly criticising Starmer. So it's going be a very difficult balancing act.
"He'll be the first candidate who's trying to win a by-election on the basis that he wishes to replace the leader of the party that he's standing for."
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