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Matthew Andrews, Edward S. Mason Senior Lecturer in International Development, Harvard Kennedy School

Can an African team win the World Cup? New football study crunches the numbers

World Cup Africa Football Pelé Patrice Motsepe Confederation of African Football Soccer Brazil FIFA World Cup France
Senegal's goalkeeper Tony Sylva celebrates his side's famous win against France at the 2002 Fifa World Cup. Simon Bruty/Anychance/Getty Images

Many football lovers hope an African team will finally win the men’s 2022 Fifa World Cup. The world has been waiting for this since the great Brazilian player Pelé predicted (in the 1970s) that an African country would win before the year 2000. That didn’t happen, but it didn’t stop Patrice Motsepe, president of the Confederation of African Football, from saying (in 2021):

An African team must win the World Cup in the near future.

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