The share of immigrants in the workforce has grown steadily over the last 15 years and more rapidly since 2020 as immigrants have returned to work more quickly post COVID-19 than their U.S.-born counterparts. As the U.S. economy increasingly relies on migrant labor, a new study by Brookings shows which states and occupations may see the highest need of foreign-born labor in the years to come.
Several studies have shown that immigrants, rather than stealing jobs from Americans, are actually helping boost the economy. In fact, even the Congressional Budget Office expects immigration to add an average of 0.2 percentage points to the country's annual GDP growth rate over the next 10 years.
But despite this reliance on foreign-born labor, the U.S. continues to grapple with growing labor shortages across various industries, an issue that could escalate by 2030 and affect the entire economy, according to Brookings. This is why, as companies and territories across the country prepare for these projections, it is imperative to see where more demand will be present in the years to come, the institute argues.
At the national level, the report shows that Trades and Production occupations will have the highest demand for new work visas through 2030 due to those occupations' large share of overall employment and heavy reliance on foreign-born workers with about 2,870,897 of projected demand.
At the second spot are Retail and Entertainment occupations, which are projected to see a high demand for new work visas due to their fast employment growth and high rate of retirements with about 2,148,599 total projected visa demands.
Occupying the third spot was Health and Human Services occupations, which are projected to see 1,070,386 of projected visa demands by 2030. Business and Finance, and STEM occupations finished off the top 5, with 813,404 and 342,042 projected visa demands respectively.
When it comes to states, those with larger populations and higher shares of immigrants are expected to see the highest demands. Hence, California, Texas and New York are projected to have the highest demand for new visas through 2030.
Similarly, because of their large existing populations of immigrants, New Jersey and Illinois are also expected to have a high demand for new visas, ranking fifth and sixth, respectively among states, despite relatively low expected overall job growth.
In contrast, states such as Tennessee and Utah can expect a relatively high demand for new visas because of their high expected job growth, ranking ninth and first respectively, despite a relatively low share of immigrants in the workforce.
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