The regular season continues to wind toward a close, and we only have two more weeks of play before conference championship weekend. Several of those matchups are already set in stone — namely the SEC and ACC Championships, which were clinched on Saturday — but others will come down to the wire over the last couple of weeks.
Compared to a Week 10 that was filled with high-profile matchups, Week 11 didn’t do too much to impact the national picture, though we did see one top-10 team go down in No. 6 Oregon. With the Ducks’ loss, the Pac-12’s playoff hopes likely evaporated (more on that later).
Regardless, we only have a few more of these Saturdays left, so it’s important to appreciate them while we can. As always, here are the winners and losers from a November weekend of college football action.
Winner: Auburn feeling good again
Auburn has seen worse stretches of football than it did during Bryan Harsin’s brief, 9-12 tenure on the plains. After all, this program went 3-9 in a 2012 season that saw the downfall of national title-winning coach Gene Chizik.
But it’s hard to say there’s ever been a less joyful time to be an Auburn fan than the Harsin era. He was widely seen as a lame-duck coach entering the 2022 season, and he made sure everyone around him knew it this fall. He almost seemed to revel in it, playing word games with reporters in an attempt to obfuscate accountability for the program’s diminishing returns, both on the field and on the recruiting trail.
For lack of a better word, the vibes were simply very, very bad.
Saturday’s win over Texas A&M at Jordan-Hare Stadium — Auburn’s first victory since September — felt like the polar opposite of that entire experience, and that’s not a coincidence. This program seems to have flipped a switch since it named running backs coach and former star player Cadillac Williams the interim coach.
The Tigers overcame a massive deficit before losing in overtime to Mississippi State last week, but Williams got the win in his home debut. The emotional reaction on the field after the game from him and his players may have been puzzling from an outsider’s perspective, given that both teams entered the game at 3-6.
If you still don’t understand exactly what Saturday night meant for the Auburn faithful, just watch this video.
Auburn being Auburn. Cole Cubelic interviewing Auburn head coach Cadillac Williams after his first win. #wde #auburn @AuburnFootball @colecubelic @CoachCaddy24 pic.twitter.com/K8L6uZeTak
— Meredith Walsh (@meredithdwalsh) November 13, 2022
Harsin was never a fit with this program, and the rocky relationship between him and the school’s power brokers played out quite publicly. Williams, on the other hand, bleeds burnt orange and navy blue. He preexisted Harsin on this coaching staff, and he (fittingly) outlasted him. He almost certainly won’t get the full-time job, but this team’s performance has been a glowing advertisement for both Williams’ coaching abilities and Auburn’s potential as a program — with the right leader in place, of course.
Loser: What to make of Texas?
I don’t think I’ve flip-flopped on a team more than I have with the Longhorns this season. But you tell me, what am I supposed to do with this team?
What am I supposed to make of a Texas squad that has arguably the best running back and one of the top receivers in college football, not to mention a generational quarterback recruit running the show? What am I supposed to do with a team that’s 6-4 and yet, somehow, is beloved by both ESPN’s Football Power Index and SP+ analytics systems, ranking in the top 10 in both?
What am I supposed to think about Steve Sarkisian, a proven play-caller who has demonstrated his talent acquisition abilities but also has just an 11-11 record at one of the premier jobs in the sport?
Sarkisian squandered his honeymoon period with a 5-7 finish last fall. The team is markedly better this year, but after losing at home to TCU in a game where an offensive dud spoiled a spectacular defensive performance, an 8-4 finish in the regular season is the ceiling — and that’s assuming Texas doesn’t slip up against Kansas (again) or Baylor, both of which are losable games.
It goes without saying that 2023 will be a pivotal year for the Sarkisian era at Texas. If this team isn’t competing on a national level, there are going to be problems in Austin.
Winner: UCF returning to form
It’s rare to see a Group of Five program absolutely nail it with three-straight hires, but it’s that sort of decision-making that has allowed UCF to become the most consistent program outside the Power Five (which it will soon be a part of) in recent years.
Gus Malzahn has picked up exactly where Scott Frost and Josh Heupel left off. In 2021, he actually improved on the latter’s finish from the COVID-19 season, concluding the campaign with a satisfying win over Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl.
After beating Tulane on Saturday, the Knights are now in the driver’s seat in the American and for the G5’s New Year’s Six auto-bid spot. With losses to Louisville and East Carolina, this team doesn’t quite live up to the standard set in 2017 and 2018, but there’s no denying this program is on its way back up at the right time as it prepares to jump to the Big 12.
Side note: If Auburn wants to hire an up-and-comer from the G5 ranks, it may want to take a look at this Malzahn guy.
Loser: The Pac-12 is fun but irrelevant in the CFP race once again
Ok, so that isn’t entirely true. At 9-1, USC represents the league’s best shot at making the final four, and the Trojans aren’t completely out. Keep in mind, the Pac-12 scrapped the division format this year, so the top two teams in the league will face in the championship, regardless of prior divisional alignment.
The Trojans’ loss to Utah is really hurting them, and though winning out would mean a victory over UCLA in the regular season and a win over another good conference foe in the championship, they likely still need a TCU loss to have much hope, and even then, it may be an uphill battle.
Oregon’s loss to a resurgent Washington squad all but ended Dan Lanning’s CFP hopes in Year 1, while any fringe hopes UCLA had collapsed with a loss to an improved but mediocre Arizona team — also taking some luster away from a potential USC win in the Rose Bowl, in the process.
This is the best this league has been in years. I’m fascinated by a lot of these teams, and the conference is strong at the top. Unfortunately, that parity has kneecapped its hopes of returning to the CFP for the first time since 2016.
Winner: TCU still rolling
As fun a story as Sonny Dykes and TCU have been this fall, this team has played with fire all season long. Entering Saturday’s road contest against Texas, the Horned Frogs had to overcome second-half deficits in four of the previous five games. It’s not surprising the Longhorns were a trendy upset pick.
The Texas defense definitely fazed TCU’s normally fantastic offense. Quarterback Max Duggan never really got going as he was sacked five times, though running back Kendre Miller had a productive game.
But unlike prior games, the Frogs never trailed in this one thanks to a lights-out performance on defense. They entirely neutralized Quinn Ewers, while Bijan Robinson had just 12 carries for 29 yards. TCU clinched a spot in the Big 12 title game with this win, and this team’s CFP chances look pretty good right about now.
Loser: Me, trying to figure out who's going to win the Big Ten West
With Purdue’s win over Illinois and Iowa’s win over Wisconsin, the Big Ten West, a division already in flux, got even messier. And when I say messy, I mean messy.
Division clinching scenarios can be a bit complicated and usually include a few moving parts, especially when you get into multi-team tiebreaker situations. Still, you generally don’t need a spreadsheet and a graduate degree in mathematics to make sense of them.
But in the case of the Big Ten West, well, see for yourself.
For you people looking for what has to happen for "X" Big Ten West team to win the West
Here's all the scenarios with two weeks to go, courtesy of @WesleyJ_14 pic.twitter.com/dKCsinX3pK
— Ryan Burns (@RyanBurnsMN) November 13, 2022
With just two weeks to play, Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota and Iowa all sit at 4-3 in conference play, while Wisconsin is 3-4. Only Nebraska and Northwestern have been officially eliminated from contention in the division.
Anything could happen here: Purdue could win the division and lose in the Big Ten Championship, Iowa could win the division and lose in the Big Ten Championship, etc. So many possibilities.
Quick Hitters - Winners
- LSU: It wasn’t pretty for the Tigers on the road against Arkansas, but they clinched the SEC West on Saturday, a massive accomplishment for Brian Kelly in Year 1. Also, true freshman linebacker Harold Perkins had four sacks and two forced fumbles, a feat no Power Five player has accomplished since Chase Young.
- Florida: Are we coming full circle on the Gators a bit? They dominated South Carolina on Saturday, and quarterback Anthony Richardson has now gone four games without a turnover. This team has three losses to teams currently ranked in the top 10, a win over a very good Utah team and could finish 8-4. If Florida can win out, this has turned into a more-than-passable first year for Billy Napier.
- Boston College: This has been a very bad season in Chestnut Hill for coach Jeff Hafley, but a ranked win on the road against NC State gives this team some semblance of momentum. Meanwhile, it’s a tough loss for Dave Doeren’s team, which was coming off a win over Wake Forest.
- UConn: Now looking at a team that beat BC a few weeks ago, the Huskies did us a great public service in knocking off Hugh Freeze and Liberty on Saturday, becoming bowl eligible in the process. If not for what Lance Leipold has done at Kansas, Jim Mora Jr. would be a no-brainer Coach of the Year.
- North Carolina: The Tar Heels emerged atop the trash heap that is the ACC Coastal, and this team looks dangerous after a win over Wake Forest. With just one loss to Notre Dame, UNC at least nominally remains in the CFP race if it can upset Clemson in the ACC Championship.
- Clemson: The Tar Heels’ title game foe had a nice bounce-back this week against a solid Louisville team that entered on a winning streak, and it was a feel-good game for DJ Uiagalalei, who was benched in the loss to the Fighting Irish.
- Florida State: FSU’s margin of victory in its three-game winning streak since a six-point loss to Clemson? 124-22. This has been a quietly strong team all season, and if it can snap a three-game losing streak to rival Florida in Tallahassee on Black Friday, this team should finish 9-3. That would be a massive step forward for Mike Norvell.
- Kansas State: The Wildcats have been a bit overshadowed by TCU, but this has been a great season for a team that has had to battle through injuries, including one to quarterback Adrian Martinez who was banged up again on Saturday. Backup Will Howard came in once more, leading KSU to a 31-3 win on the road against Baylor. This team will likely get another shot at the Horned Frogs in the title game.
- Vanderbilt: The Commodores snapped a 26-game losing streak in SEC play on Saturday against a ranked Kentucky team on the road, no less. Clark Lea gets his first conference victory, and he’ll look to get another as Florida comes to town this weekend.
- Arizona: Jedd Fisch inherited one of the worst situations in the Power Five when he took this job in 2021. Despite having just a 5-17 record in Tuscon, Fisch showed some major proof of concept on Saturday as the Wildcats upset UCLA and now sit at 4-6.
Quick Hitters - Losers
- Oklahoma: The Sooners added another bad loss to an increasingly long list, dropping a 23-20 game to a West Virginia team that may be about to show coach Neal Brown the door. Brent Venables can turn this around, but it will be a tough offseason following one of OU’s worst seasons in a long time.
- Wisconsin: Jim Leonhard has a lot of momentum toward getting this job full-time, but losing by 14 points to an Iowa team that averaged 2.14 yards per play offensively is not what I would call putting his best foot forward.
- Georgia Tech: Keeping with the theme of interim coaches quickly falling out of favor, a blowout loss against Miami likely extinguished any hope the Yellow Jackets had of being able to sell Brent Key to the public as the permanent guy.
- Texas A&M: I feel like a broken record when it comes to the Aggies, but a loss to Auburn on Saturday was a new low. This team can’t do anything well offensively, and at 3-7, Jimbo Fisher’s team is going to miss a bowl game this fall despite having one of the most talented rosters in the country. Still, I can think of 86 million reasons that TAMU will likely run it back next fall with minimal changes.
- Kentucky: Someone had to lose to Vanderbilt, but the fact that it was Kentucky in Lexington is a bit eye-opening. Can someone explain to me why Will Levis is seen as a surefire top-10 pick? He’s certainly not the only problem, but he’s struggling this fall, there’s no way around it.
- Ole Miss: The Rebels probably should have won on Saturday and handed Alabama its third loss of the season, but they couldn’t quite finish on the final drive. This team is good but frustrating, and it missed an opportunity to take a step forward.
- Tulsa: In a Group of Five anxiety bowl, the Golden Hurricane lost 26-10 at Memphis. Eighth-year coach Philip Montgomery has a losing record overall and is just 3-7 this season, and it doesn’t seem very likely he’ll be retained.
- Florida International: FIU and Florida Atlantic both entered Saturday’s rivalry game at 4-5, and it should have been relatively evenly matched. The Owls won 52-7. The Panthers have actually overachieved a bit this year, but this is still one of the worst programs in the FBS despite being located in Miami.
