The Green Bay Packers could strengthen their hold on a playoff spot or turn their postseason hopes into a projected coin flip during Week 11 of the 2024 season.
According to playoff projections from Timo Riske of Pro Football Focus, the Packers have the most to play for in terms of playoff odds this week. With a win over the Chicago Bears on Sunday, the Packers’ odds go up to 80 percent. But with a loss, their odds would drop to 48 percent — giving Sunday’s showdown with the Bears a week-high “leverage” rating of 32 percent.
It’s easy to see why. If the Packers win, they’ll improve to 7-3 and have a legitimate chance to win 10-12 games based on the remaining schedule. But if they lose, the Packers will drop to 0-3 in the NFC North and have four conference losses while giving other playoff contenders — like the 49ers, Rams, Seahawks and even the Bears — a better chance of leap-frogging the Packers in the wildcard race. And a loss to the Bears — who have scored 27 points in the last three weeks — would be concerning regardless of playoff odds.
It might be a little early to consider playoff odds given how volatile results in the NFL can be. Even if the Packers drop to 6-4, they’ll be in a significantly better position than last year, when they started 3-6 and needed to win six of the final eight games to sneak into the playoff field as the No. 7 seed. But more than likely, a 9-8 record isn’t going to punch a ticket to the postseason in the NFC this season.
The Packers need to take care of business against a team that has lost three straight games, changed offensive coordinators mid-week and is starting a struggling rookie quarterback. The Bears won their first three games at Soldier Field this season, and Williams did have a stretch of solid play before the bye week, but the Packers are a significant road favorite for a reason.
Matt LaFleur’s team is a contender in the NFC. They must prove it coming out of the bye. The Packers are healthy, the Bears are reeling. “Any given Sunday” always applies in the NFL, but if the Packers want to be serious playoff contenders in 2024, they need to go on the road and beat the Bears — which will solidify their positioning in the NFC playoff race entering a pivotal stretch featuring games against the San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions over the next three weeks.
