It is possible for both Andy Burnham and Keir Starmer to be right about the mathematics of the Greater Manchester mayor standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election.
Burnham is completely correct that he – of all the possible Labour candidates in what could be a crucial by-election – stands the best chance of winning. The polling suggests that without him, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK wins by six points – and that with Burnham as the candidate, Labour wins by four.