The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts parched conditions across virtually all of Australia this winter as a double whammy of drought-linked climate drivers brew in waters to the west and east.
Instead of the familiar blues and greens of recent years, BOM's rainfall outlook from June to August is coloured in a slate of orange and brown.
It indicates the high likelihood of below-average rainfall across the country.
And it does not stop there.
Large swathes of southern Australia also have triple to quadruple the chance of "unusually dry" conditions – which means the bottom 20 per cent of historical records.
BOM climatologist Zhi-Weng Chua said it was a worrying outlook, reminiscent of the 2019 winter conditions which, when followed by a dry spring, helped create the dry fuels that fed major bushfires across the country.
"Going past winter there is high uncertainty, but if it really is as dry as the outlooks say then that does set up increased bushfire risk in our summer," he said.
"And for places that are relying on winter rainfall, especially agricultural areas over southern Australia, then it would be a worry for them."
Of course, every year is different and a dry outlook does not guarantee it will happen. Rather, it reflects how the odds are stacked.
Here is the breakdown of what it is projected to look like across the country this winter.
New South Wales and ACT
The general picture is dry and warm, with some cooler nights in the west.
Large areas of the state and territory are likely to have below average rainfall.
The most significantly affected areas are likely to be away from the coast which have twice the normal chance of unusually low rain.
As for temperature, all of the state is highly likely to have above average daytime temperatures for winter.
A dry rainfall outlook, however, does not mean it will not rain at all.
In fact, current forecasts are suggesting a soggy start to the season with widespread rain across New South Wales and parts of Victoria over the next eight days.
Victoria
Victoria is looking particularly at risk.
The whole state has double the chance of being "unusually dry", meaning the bottom 20 per cent of all records.
All of the state is also highly likely to have warmer than normal day and night-time temperatures.
Western Australia
Western Australia, especially the South West Land Division, looks likely to be hit hardest of all of Australia.
All of the state is likely to very likely have below average rainfall.
The south-west corner of the state also has at least three times the chance of falling into the "unusually dry" category.
The dry outlook is not a good sign for those relying on winter rainfall, with yearly rainfall in the south-west of the state made up almost entirely by the winter months.
But like Victoria and New South Wales, current forecasts show WA's south also looks set to kick off winter with a good drink.
Queensland
One of the few exceptions to the dry signal from June to August is Queensland.
Specifically, the far northern tip of the Cape Yorke Peninsula is likely to have a wetter than normal June to August.
The rest of the state is following the same script as the rest of the country.
But Mr Chua said the dry outlook was not to the same extremes as the southern states.
While maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for much of the state, inland southern areas are likely to have cooler nights.
South Australia
South Australia is also looking particularly dry with high-to-very high odds of a drier than normal winter.
Southern and south eastern parts of the state also have triple the chance of "unusually" low rainfall, with most other parts up to twice as likely.
Along with the dry weather it is likely to be warmer than normal across the state.
Inland northern and eastern parts look set for some fresh nights, which are cooler than normal.
Tasmania
Tasmania is slightly more of a mixed bag than the other states.
The northern half of the state is likely to have below average rainfall this winter, while the south has roughly equal chances of below or above average rainfall.
The state is also highly likely to have warmer than normal day and night-time temperatures — although in a Tasmanian winter "warmer than normal" is still chilly.
Northern Territory
The Northern Territory is currently in its dry season and, according to the outlook, rainfall looks likely to very likely be below average.
But given there is typically very little rainfall this time of year Mr Chua said that was not particularly significant.
"Lots of the state sees less than five millimetres [from June to August] so there's not much point talking about the unusually dry areas," he said.
It is looking like warmer days will be on the cards for the southern half of the state, however, along with cooler nights.
Locations of most significant impacts
If a dry winter eventuates it will be felt hardest by those who are already dry.
Data shows large parts of WA's south-west, NSW, Victoria, and southern Queensland have received lower than normal rainfall in the year to date, particularly in May.
"These are areas where the forecast is dry as well, so if you combine the short-term deficiencies with the outlook these areas are of high concern," Dr Chua said.
"Especially south-west Western Australia as that's where the chance of unusually dry conditions is very high."
But he said "substantial" water storages would go some way to providing a buffer for a dry winter.
"For most of Australia, water storage is more than 90 per cent right now," he said.
"There are some exceptions in western Tasmania and the south-west coast of Western Australia, which are down to around 50 per cent capacity."
Potential double-whammy
BOM's long range outlook is based on a complex combination of the physics of the atmosphere, oceans, ice, and land, and incorporates climate change and natural climate drivers.
But Mr Chua said two of the biggest factors in the dry forecast were the growing likelihood of an El Niño climate pattern and a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) developing in coming months.
El Niño is the opposite of La Niña, typically linked to drier than normal conditions over eastern Australia.
The BOM currently has it at "watch" level, indicating a 50 per cent chance it will develop this winter or spring.
Since the last update, the atmosphere has begun to show signs of an El Niño state too.
The IOD works in a similar way but, as the name suggests it is related to conditions in the Indian Ocean.
Positive IOD events are linked to drier than average conditions, especially through central Australia.
"When they both occur we do tend to see dryness being more widespread over Australia," he said.
Bu Mr Chua said climate change was also likely to play a role in the outlook.
"Winter rainfall has declined over south-west and south-east Australia in recent decades," he said.
