The federal budget has recorded a surplus of more than $18bn in the first 11 months of the fiscal year, buoyed by a larger collection of revenues than forecast in the May budget.
The underlying cash surplus of $18.2bn so far is almost as large as the $22.1bn surplus recorded for all of the 2022-23 year, according to the government’s updated finances.
The revision is due in part to earlier than anticipated payment of corporate taxes that helped lift revenue by about $2bn.
Expenses were about $1.6bn smaller than projected for the period July to the end of May which ensures the Albanese government will register surpluses in its first two years in office.
The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, cautioned on Friday that it was too early to be sure the full-year surplus would exceed the $9.3bn projected in last month’s budget.
“Some softness in our tax take, when compared to payments, might still result in a surplus that’s a bit smaller or a bit bigger than we forecast in the budget,” Chalmers told a Citi economic forum in Sydney on Friday.
“But whatever the final result it’s already clear that delivering back-to-back surpluses for the first time in nearly two decades is the right thing for our economy, for interest costs in the budget, and as a buffer against global uncertainty.”
The first back-to-back federal surpluses since the 2007-08 year were not expected to extend into a third year. The budget predicted it would swing to a deficit of $28.3bn in 2024-25.
Net debt at the end of May was $486.1bn, and the budget forecast this figure will swell to just shy of half a trillion dollars at $499.9bn by the end of this month.
The new Reserve Bank deputy governor, Andrew Hauser, downplayed on Thursday the importance of a surprising jump in May’s inflation figures.
The former Bank of England official noted the “partial” read on prices given by the monthly inflation gauge compiled by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Between now and the next RBA board meeting on 5-6 August, the central bank would receive other ABS data releases, including retail sales, employment and more complete June quarter inflation figures.
“It would be a bad mistake to set policy on the basis of one number [the May CPI] and we don’t intend to do that,” Hauser said.
Asked on Friday about how Hauser’s views compared with market bets of about a 50-50 chance of an August rate rise, Chalmers said they were “completely consistent with comments that the governor [Michele Bullock] has made in the past about taking into consideration a wide range of data and influences and factors when they come to their decisions independently”.
“They don’t look at any one specific number, they consider a whole range of factors: the trajectory of inflation, the labour market of course, broader growth in our economy – and we know that growth was very flat in the first three months of the year,” the treasurer said
• This article was amended on 28 June 2024. A previous version suggested the full-year budget surplus for 2023-24 was expected to be $18.2bn.
