Adding an unknown variable to the already complicated political arithmetic of Rajasthan, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) will make its debut in the upcoming State Assembly election, while Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), whose six legislators switched to the Congress in 2018, is making a renewed bid to play a crucial role in the ‘balance of power’, with its national president Mayawati planning to address eight election rallies across the State.
The AIMIM has so far announced candidates for three seats — Hawa Mahal, Kaman, and Fatehpur, and is planning to contest up to 30 seats here. All the three seats for which it has fielded candidates so far are held by the Congress. The AIMIM’s national president, Asaduddin Owaisi, will be in the State on October 21 and 22 for the first round of campaigning. “It is a myth that the Congress works for the Muslims. Rajasthan and Telangana have almost equal proportions of Muslims, but the minority budget in Rajasthan is roughly ₹250 crores, while in Telangana it is ₹2,200 crores. The socio-economic indicators for the Muslim population in the State [of Rajasthan] are below par,” Mr. Owaisi told The Hindu.
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The AIMIM, which launched its Rajasthan unit on May 31, 2022, has not fought even a local body election in the State so far.
The BSP, meanwhile, has had a presence in the State since 1998. In the 2008 elections, they hit a high with 7.60% vote share, winning six seats, but their legislators promptly shifted to Congress. In 2013, their vote share dipped to 3.40%, bringing down their tally to three seats, and in 2018, they registered a minor increase, cornering 4% vote share but managing to win six seats. Yet once again, all their legislators switched to the Congress.
In this election, the party has decided to contest all 200 seats, with a special focus on the 60 seats where they believe they are better placed. “The legislators may leave the party, but our voters won’t,” the BSP’s State president Bhagwan Singh Baba, told The Hindu when pointed to the persistent trend of their legislators switching sides.
BSP supremo Ms. Mayawati will be addressing eight rallies between November 17 to 20. The Congress has questioned the quantum of rallies that Ms. Mayawati is slated to address, pointing out that the BSP stayed away from by-polls in Uttar Pradesh, and she had kept her political engagements limited even during the 2022 Assembly elections in the State. “We are not fighting to defeat any one. We are fighting to win,” Mr. Baba said in response to this.
Making a poll prediction, he further claimed that Congress’ social welfare schemes have created a pro-incumbency buzz, and despite the State’s history of alternating power between the Congress and the BJP, it won’t be a cakewalk for the saffron party. “No one will be able to get the majority and we will be crucial for maintaining the balance of power,” he added.
While the Congress and BJP are the two dominant forces in the State, the smaller parties that include the BSP make a significant bloc in the State often deciding which way the power balance tilts. In the 2018 elections this bloc got 17.099 % votes and in 2013 they had 17.5%. Both these parties cut into the Congress base, and can tilt the scale in BJP’s favour.
