The Carolina Panthers thought they were finally turning it around.
After moving on from Cam Newton in 2020, Carolina has consistently languished as one of the NFL’s worst teams. But after trading up to draft Bryce Young and pairing him with Frank Reich, everything looked like it was coming up Carolina again. The duo should’ve been a foundation to be excited about.
The operative word there is “should’ve.”
On Monday, the Panthers canned Reich after just one win in 11 games. The man who was supposed to serve as a quarterback mentor for the hopeful future of the franchise didn’t even make it to December before Panthers owner David Tepper decided to scapegoat him for his own micromanagement cut the organization’s losses. And now, Young — a young quarterback whose flashes have been so far and few in between — will be forced to learn his second offense in just two seasons. That is if the next Carolina coaching staff wants any part of Young in the first place.
For all intents and purposes, this is a disaster. Before he even gets a chance to launch off the ground, Young is already fighting an uphill battle to be a competent NFL starter, let alone a franchise-changing quarterback.
Out of 431 qualified QB seasons since 2011, Bryce Young is currently 431st in Yards/Dropback.
— Jacob Nierob (@JNierob) November 27, 2023
One of the worst things an NFL team can do to a developing quarterback is uproot their foundation. The second worst thing an NFL team can do to a young quarterback is surround them with sparse talent. Expecting a young man who only recently earned the ability to legally drink alcohol to play “hero ball” from the jump while he’s supposed to be creating good habits is a grave mistake. These are cardinal sins of quarterback development, pitfalls every franchise should avoid at all costs if possible.
The Panthers dug their own grave here. They fired Reich in an overzealous fashion, virtually guaranteeing Young effectively has to start from square one in 2024. Changing coaches is usually only something veteran, established star quarterbacks can survive (see: Josh Allen, potentially, in Buffalo). For quarterbacks still trying to gain their footing, it is a worst-case scenario. The issue of a lackluster supporting cast was set in stone the moment Carolina sent off a king’s ransom to Chicago. Few passers could thrive in a situation with late-stage Adam Thielen seldom separating from defenders and a sieve offensive line that has surrendered 43 sacks.
Boy, it sure would’ve been nice to have that current No. 1 overall pick and the opportunity to draft a legitimate playmaker like Marvin Harrison Jr., wouldn’t it?
Marvin Harrison Jr. caught that ball with one arm wrapped up while being tackled 😤@OhioStateFB pic.twitter.com/bNRua8gF68
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 25, 2023
Young’s chances of becoming a franchise quarterback are by no means over. They’re just exceedingly unlikely. The list of quarterbacks who had throwaway rookie campaigns and still went on to successful careers is a lot shorter than the list of guys who became glorified backups or, even worse, busts.
Take a few recent examples.
Trevor Lawrence was consumed by the grease fire known as Urban Meyer in 2021. He has recovered (somewhat?), but by no means does he resemble the generational player many expected. In Chicago, Justin Fields endured a lame-duck campaign under Matt Nagy and has been forced to put the Bears’ offense on his back ever since. The results have been predictably mixed and uninspiring — so much so that the Bears could start over at quarterback this spring. Meanwhile, in San Francisco, Trey Lance’s first true full starting season in 2022 was cut way short by an ankle injury. He is now the Cowboys’ third-string quarterback while the 49ers simultaneously stare down a run at Super Bowl 58.
This was always the issue behind drafting Young and going all out for him. By virtue of his smaller size and stature alone, scouting evaluations touted the Alabama college football legend as someone with a lower ceiling than that of his draft-class peers like C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson. The deck would’ve been stacked for anyone throwing the ball for the Panthers this year, but that was especially going to be the case for someone more limited like Young. Football isn’t played in a vacuum, but it’s not hard to see more of a gifted natural talent like Stroud — the player Reich and his staff apparently wanted to draft over Young — excelling in Carolina’s adverse circumstances.
Instead, Young screams bust by all effective definitions. According to RBDSM.com, he is 29th in expected points added (EPA) and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) — sharing illustrious company with “barnburners” like Kenny Pickett and Mac Jones. He’s 27th in the NFL in passing yards and is averaging less than a touchdown pass per game. He has nearly as many games below 200 passing yards (five) as outings where he completed at least 60 percent of his passes (six). His interception rate is 2.3 percent (19th in the league), and his sack rate is an atrocious 10.3 percent (30th in the NFL), suggesting that he not only makes regrettable mistakes all the time but exacerbates his situation, too.
Sacks are just as much a quarterback stat as they are reflective of an offensive line. If your sack rate is nearly as high as Justin “My Pocket Presence Is Negligible” Fields (12.3 percent), that’s a foreboding omen.
I don’t know how the Panthers will salvage Young after the mess of 2023. He’s been that bad, and he’s set to face even more obstacles moving forward. It is never too early to say if a quarterback has “it.” But if the Carolina plan remains centered around morphing Young into the face of the franchise, firing his first professional head coach and asking him to start over already is another huge misstep.
