Sir Keir Starmer has opened up a record 13-point lead over Rishi Sunak in terms of who Britons think is the “most capable Prime Minister”, according to a new poll.
The exclusive Ipsos survey for the Standard gives Labour a commanding 22-point edge over the Conservatives. Nearly half - 49 per cent - said they would back Sir Keir’s party if an election were held tomorrow, compared to 27 per cent for the Tories.
Asked who would make the most capable PM, 39 percent opted for Sir Keir (up four points since October) while 26 per cent said Mr Sunak (down five).
The PM says he is targeting a General Election in the second half of the year - enough time, the Tories hope, for voters to benefit from signs of improvement in the economy and to look more deeply at what Labour is offering under Sir Keir.
There are signs of improvement in Ipsos’s “Economic Optimism Index” from most of last year - 24 per cent of respondents think that Britain’s general economic condition will improve over the next 12 months, up five points from November’s findings. Fifty per cent think it will get worse (down five from November).
Asked whether Labour was ready to form the next government, 41 per cent agreed (down two points since October) and 36 per cent disagreed (down three).
Some 66 per cent are dissatisfied with Mr Sunak (down three points), but a sizeable minority of 48 per cent are also dissatisfied with Sir Keir (down three as well). Tory strategists insist that such findings show that the Labour chief has failed to “seal the deal” with voters.
However, there also are signs that voter attitudes are hardening, undermining Tory hopes that Labour’s huge lead is soft.
Some 48 per cent of voters said they had definitely decided which party they would vote for, up from 42 per cent in December. The percentage of people saying they might change their minds was 49, down from 53 before.
Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos UK, said: “This year isn’t showing much sign of starting off a lot better for the Conservatives than 2023 ended.
“Time for a change sentiment is still strong, the public remain concerned about the NHS, the cost of living, the economy and immigration, and Rishi Sunak has dropped further behind Keir Starmer as the public’s most capable PM,” he said.
“What limited comfort the Conservatives do have – that there is still a lack of enthusiasm for Labour, and that economic optimism has slightly improved from last year’s lows as inflation fell – seems quite outweighed by public dissatisfaction with the way the Government is delivering on the issues they really care about.”
Labour’s support level has surged eight points to January from December, when Ipsos pegged it at 41 per cent, and its overall lead over the Tories is up five points from 17 points before.
Support for the Conservatives also rose in January, but only by three points from 24 per cent in December, with the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK backed by Nigel Farage both getting squeezed.
The Lib Dems stood on 7 per cent, down from 13, over a period that saw Sir Ed Davey face calls to apologise or even hand back his knighthood for failing to back sub-postmasters during the Horizon software scandal when he was postal minister over a decade ago.
The Green Party also stood at 7 per cent, down from 9 per cent. Reform UK slipped to 4 per cent from 7 per cent.
Labour is framing the next election as an opportunity to start afresh, and most voters agree with the sentiment. Some 69 per cent said that it was time for a change at the next election, up four points since July. Only 19 per cent think the Conservatives deserve to be re-elected.
The NHS, healthcare and hospitals were listed as a very important election issue by 28 per cent of people, while 23 per cent said inflation/cost of living and 22 per cent said the economic situation.
Asylum/immigration came next on 19 per cent with education/schools rounding out the top five on 13 per cent. Housing and protecting the environment/climate change both polled at 10 per cent.
