British households face rolling blackouts if gas imports fall short of demand this winter, National Grid has warned.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created “unprecedented turmoil and volatility” in energy markets, the company said on Thursday, adding that there could be pre-planned power cuts across the country in three-hour slots to give priority to power plants.
Britain leans heavily on gas for power stations and on electricity imported from continental Europe, which is facing an energy crisis as Putin’s war disrupts supplies.
The news comes as Liz Truss asked European leaders to work together to tackle energy costs. The prime minister attended the first meeting of the European Political Community in Prague where she said she wanted to work with “our neighbours” on issues including energy costs and rising inflation.
Asked if she could guarantee there would be no blackouts, she said: “What we’re clear about is that we do have a good supply of energy in the UK, we’re in a much better position than many other countries, but of course there’s always more we can do and that’s why I’m here working with our partners making sure we do have a secure energy supply into the future”.
National Grid said outages were “unlikely” but possible even without a drop-off in gas supplies, if cold weather coincided with no electricity imports from Europe and low wind energy generation. If outages are required, vulnerable customers and some businesses would be given priority, though it is still unclear how some of these groups will be identified.
In a bid to reduce electricity demand during peak hours, a new scheme to encourage households and businesses to use energy at quieter times will be launched from next month.
However, some electricity suppliers have expressed concerns about the scheme, saying in September that the payments to encourage shifting usage to off-peak hours were too low.
Jess Ralston, senior analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) said the gas crisis triggered by Russia has changed the outlook this year because “there is still a large unknown around how high the gas price will go and what will be available”.
She added: “We didn’t need to be here. Had investment in energy efficiency and onshore wind gone ahead over the past few years, we’d be much more certain about meeting demand. Every spin of a wind turbine and loft lagged means less gas we need to try to buy.”
National Grid’s fresh analysis of energy security comes after energy regulator Ofgem warned on Monday that there was a “significant risk” of gas shortages this winter.
An Ofgem spokesperson Britain had one of the most reliable power systems in the world but that it was “responsible and prudent” for the energy sector “to ensure the right contingency measures are in place”.
National Grid said it was “cautiously confident” that it could keep the lights on. But this assumes that the UK can rely on energy imports from a range of European partners that could face their own energy shortages this winter.
The recent sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines and long-running challenges in France’s nuclear energy sector have ramped up pressures on the continent’s power generation.
Responding to the winter outlook, a government spokesperson said: “The UK has a secure and diverse energy system. We are confident in our plans to protect households and businesses in the full range of scenarios this winter, in light of Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine.
“To strengthen this position further, we have put plans in place to secure supply and National Grid, working alongside energy suppliers and Ofgem, will launch a voluntary service to reward users who reduce demand at peak times.”
The spokesperson said Britain is not dependent on Russian energy imports, and has access to North Sea gas reserves, imports from Norway, and via ports which can handle liquefied natural gas, as well as clean energy sources.
