Twenty long days have passed and Bristol Rovers finally return to competitive action with a Good Friday encounter against Charlton Athletic at the Mem.
It’s a game between two sides locked in the mid-table regions of League One with the play-offs out of sight and relegation a concern that can be placed (at least for now) towards the back of their minds.
That said, as Joey Barton has consistently delivered the message there can be no slacking off or falling into the age-old trap of being “on the beach”; a curious cliché given many of the squad have spent some of the last few weeks doing exactly that.
But there are players with futures and contracts to play for and Barton’s summer plans will be further shaped by this run of games and how various individuals perform. The external pressure of the table may not exist quite at the level of before, but internally it’ll be ramped up as ever.
The Addicks arrive in north Bristol in some form with five games unbeaten and former Bristol City coach and manager Dean Holden in the dugout. Rovers need to end what has become a wretched home record in 2023 - one win in eight, back on January 1 and just one goal scored since - and with some very tough encounters in BS7 on the horizon, this represents a great chance to break the trend. Here’s how we think the Gas will line up…
Goalkeeper and defence
James Belshaw has re-established his place in the side and although was perhaps guilty of a small handling error in the defeat to Portsmouth - he, for the record, disputed that - has for the most part played well enough to justify his re-inclusion.
Ellery Balcombe’s position, meanwhile, is a interesting one given that he’ll be leaving the club at the end of the season to return to Brentford so unless Belshaw’s form really dips over the next month, there seems little point in starting the 23-year-old.
As to what sort of defence lines up, it’s very much open to debate and interpretation. Jarell Quansah will serve the first of his three-match suspension and having been ever-present since signing at the end of January, his absence leaves a hole in the centre of defence.
Barton does have James Gibbons available again following his suspension and the defender comes into the equation in that part of the field if the manager chooses to select a back three. In that instance you’d imagine it would be Gibbons or Luca Hoole, James Connolly and then Lewis Gibson with the wing-backs Hoole or Sinclair and Lewis Gordon on the left.
Should he revert to a back four then it’ll be a fight between Hoole and Gibbons on the right flank with Connolly and Gibson lining up in the centre and then Gordon or Calum Macdonald on the left. The issue with that is that neither of those left-sided players look as comfortable in a four as they do in a back-three with wing-backs.
What could lean towards the latter system is Connolly and the Scouser’s rather shaky form and confidence over the last few months. Playing a three could offer him greater protection with legs to cover, just to bring a greater sense of security and allow him to concentrate on his own game. That said, Barton isn’t really a manager for suiting a system to one player, let alone a defensive one, so it’ll be up to the 21-year-old to adapt and do his job however his manager instructs.
Barton did note Connolly and Gibbons both performed well in a three against Villa, which should ensure at least one of them play today. Connolly seems the more likely as the specialised central defender while Hoole may be preferred on the right given he was preferred before the break and has mostly performed to a decent standard.
Midfield
There’s little change on the injury front with Paul Coutts, Jordan Rossiter and Josh Grant’s knee injuries preventing their participation for the remainder of the campaign.
Sam Finley, however, will be available to start for the first time since March 4 having made a 17-minute cameo against Portsmouth following illness. The 30-year-old’s absence was keenly felt, not just in terms of the aggression, positional sense and quality on the ball, but his character in the middle of the park as an organiser and motivator.
He is an automatic pick and will likely wear the armband, with the identity of those around him probably a matter of choosing two from four (with all due respect to Glenn Whelan), irrespective of the system. Grant Ward and Lamare Bogarde became the midfield pivot when Finley was out, with Coutts also missing, and Barton could choose to play that duo again with his captain in an advanced role.
Or, alternatively, he could choose one - and the steady feet of Ward probably make him the more likely starter - and then bring Antony Evans or Luke McCormick into the mix. This theory works whether it’s a 3-5-2 or 4-3-3.
McCormick, unfortunately, doesn’t seem much of a factor unless he’s truly wowed the coaches over the last three weeks in training and Evans continues to be a little streaky. With Rovers’ concerns at keeping clean sheets, and ensuring they don’t lose too much creativity, the sensible moves seems to be playing Bogarde and Ward behind Finley, freeing him up to join the attack.
We also shouldn't ignore Harry Anderson who was back in training this after undergoing groin surgery which caused him to miss six weeks of action. However, it would seem unlikely for the versatile winger to be instantly placed back in the starting XI but he could well take a spot on the bench.
Attack
Which brings us to the front end, once almost a given that somebody would score, no matter the combination but something has gone awry for the Gas in the final third.
Notably at home, however, but it’s also important to remember that they have been creating chances, good one at that. What’s very evidently missing is that sense of composure and confidence that prior in the campaign was seeing Rovers scoring at will.
To stop the cycle, it kind of makes sense for Barton to perhaps return to the partnership that served him well when the Gas were playing at their maximum in an offensive sense. Namely, Aaron Collins and Josh Coburn.
While the Welshman is useful as a No10 or a flexible forward drifting all over the pitch, his output - both in terms of goals and creating them - has dropped quite dramatically and it’s been evident a lot of his chances have been either from outside the penalty area or running onto second balls, rather than being that first target inside the 18-yard box.
It’s a very simplistic way of looking at things but getting him higher up the pitch and nearer to the goal is surely a logical method for boosting his chances of hitting the target again.
Coburn hasn't looked the smooth finisher he was earlier in the season, but the Middlesbrough loanee has been playing well, holding the ball with aggression and finding space for his teammates to find him. Something will fall for him eventually and will lift a considerable load off of his shoulders.
We’ve sort of tailored this section to a predetermined narrative but unfortunately John Marquis didn’t show enough against Wycombe and Pompey - where he was substituted at half-time - to push for continued inclusion and Ryan Loft still appears to be in that frustration position (for him, at least) of being best deployed as an impact replacement and a handy Plan B.
Bristol Rovers (3-5-2): James Belshaw; Luca Hoole, James Connolly, Lewis Gibson; Scott Sinclair, Grant Ward, Lamare Bogarde, Sam Finley, Lewis Gordon; Aaron Collins, Josh Coburn
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