Just as we started to think we knew what this Bristol City team were all about, they go and drop an absolute clanger at Birmingham City to cast plenty of doubt over their identity and even those signs of progress we thought we were witnessing at the start of this season.
But perhaps that’s exactly the point: we all got a little familiar with what we were seeing and how City were either beating teams or, at least, playing well. Opposition scouts aren’t stupid, they’re literally paid to spot such traits and if we all knew what City were, then without question the rest of the Championship did.
As a result, Birmingham’s win, while brutal to watch, was of a side that had identified weaknesses and drew the absolute maximum out of themselves to secure the three points. City can expect the same from Ryan Lowe's Preston North End tonight and things will have to change.
Nigel Pearson won’t want to lose any attacking verve - albeit with the Robins having scored just two in their last four games - but knows he’ll have to adapt and alter the formula to end this run of five matches without a win. Here’s how we think City will line up at Ashton Gate…
Goalkeeper and defence
It’s been pretty straightforward all season to confirm Dan Bentley as the first name on Pearson’s teamsheet, without any cause for concern that we'll get it wrong, but a combination of the captain’s dodgy display at Birmingham City and the manager’s quotes on Tuesday regarding Stefan Bajic, raises doubt around that routine.
Bentley has, for the most part, been a pretty solid figure between the posts for City and, it shouldn’t be forgotten, saved them from defeat against Coventry City with a brilliant late save to deny Viktor Gyokores when he was through 1vs1.
However, issues at St Andrew’s - and he was not alone in that - along with the admission from Pearson that Bajic is increasingly part of the first-team conversation means his place is up for debate.
Bentley was dropped, slightly unexpectedly, last season for Max O’Leary before being brought back but that situation was slightly different because it wasn’t foretold or even hinted at by Pearson - he just did it. On this occasion, while it’s true that Bajic is edging his way into the conversation, the comments from the manager are likely to be a little reminder to his captain of the competition behind him and that he can’t afford too many Birmingham-like performances.
In front of him, it’s a matter of subtraction before you get to the likely defensive combination: no Tomas Kalas or Kal Naismith and the Andy King experiment appears one to be used in-game, as opposed to from the start. That leaves Pearson’s centre-backs as Zak Vyner, Rob Atkinson and Timm Klose, who was an unused substitute on Saturday.
The Swiss should slot into the middle of the three, which means he’s not as exposed for a lack of pace as he was during pre-season when he regularly lined up on the right. He doesn’t have the same passing range as Naismith but is still pretty classy on the ball plus can organise as the free man and should give City better aerial security than when King was back there.
As for the wing-backs, George Tanner is an obvious candidate to come in on the right-hand side in place of Mark Sykes, who has been ever-present, outside of his suspension. There is a definite case for doing so - Sykes has lacked a bit of his early-season energy and penetration and Tanner probably deserves his chance having waited patiently all season.
It’s a trivial thought but the fact Sykes was on media duty this week could offer a slight clue, as it would seem odd to then not start him 24 hours later. Then again, that’s not something that will both Pearson at all.
The only possible obstacle to Tanner not starting is the fact that Vyner and Sykes have played together so much this term so have that understanding down that channel, something that wasn’t quite developed last term.
Over on the left, it’s a similar situation with Cam Pring itching for his first league start in place of Jay Dasilva, and you can present the same sort of reasons why he should do. All we would say is that it seems unlikely Pearson would change both wing-backs, so the likelihood is that one of Tanner or Pring will be left disappointed.
Midfield
No Matty James, as he recovers from his groin injury with an eye on Saturday’s game against Millwall, which leaves Pearson to choose from Alex Scott, Han-Noah Massengo - who started at St Andrew’s - King, the returning Joe Williams and Dylan Kadji.
Massengo’s limp display almost certainly means he’ll be taken out of the starting XI, and quite possibly the matchday 18, which opens up one spot.
The probability is that it’ll be Williams, who was suspended for the Midlands trip, but has now had a full week off and should be refreshed, as opposed to King who played two matches inside a week for the first time this season. Kadji, you would think, is too much of a gamble in a game that City can't afford to experiment too much.
The only caveat to that is Andi Weimann’s presence in the side and the fact that Scott could be moved into a No10 role, should the Austrian move to the bench, meaning King will partner Williams. But, as Pearson himself said, Weimann needs to play himself back into form and he’s just too important a player to take out of the team for reasons beyond non-availability.
Although that could well change, should City’s top scorer last season continue to lack impact in games. Weimann’s name in the team could also be influenced by Pearson’s choice of strikers further up the field.
On a slightly unrelated note, it was great to see Ayman Benarous in training this week as he steps up his recovery from an ACL injury sustained towards the end of last season and the teenager, when fit, will offer another option in that advanced midfield position.
Attack
Which brings us to the top end of the pitch, City’s most consistent and reliable area of the team but one also with the responsibility of breaking this little dry patch the team are going through in terms of troubling the scoresheet.
Pearson brought the Nahki Wells and Tommy Conway partnership back together against Birmingham but it seems unlikely he’ll do so again at Ashton Gate tonight because a) they didn’t play that well and b) he doesn’t have to, due to the options at his disposal.
Herein lies the beauty of this department, when a player or players are not functioning, there are alternatives ready and waiting and who are very much first-team ready.
It wouldn’t be a great surprise, therefore, to see Pearson make wholesale changes with Wells and Conway moving to the bench and Antoine Semenyo and Chris Martin brought in, which would reunite the WSM attacking trio from last term.
Semenyo is pretty much a given, considering the problems he could pose the Preston defence, while Martin may not have started a game since August 13 at Wigan but adds more physicality at the top of the pitch and without Naismith’s clever distribution from deep, the Robins may go a little more direct.
He also provides more security in a defensive sense against opposition set-pieces, something which City were shockingly bad at preventing on the weekend.
Bristol City (3-4-1-2): Dan Bentley; Zak Vyner, Timm Klose, Rob Atkinson; George Tanner, Alex Scott, Joe Williams, Jay Dasilva; Andi Weimann; Antoine Semenyo, Chris Martin
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