Just under three years since the United Kingdom left the European Union – and over six since it voted to do so – the bilateral relationship remains a subject of often bitter debate between the two sides and within the UK itself. This is hardly surprising. The 2016 referendum was deeply divisive: leave and remain identities persist to this day. Moreover, the two sides are still at loggerheads over the Northern Ireland protocol. Yet there is a structural element to this too, which implies that, come what may, a stable equilibrium in UK-EU relations will remain elusive.
This is clearly the case should no solution be found to the standoff over the protocol. In that event, it is possible the trade and cooperation agreement (TCA), which underpins the bilateral relationship, will itself not be fully implemented – and that a running dispute and conceivably even a trade war may ensue.
