Breast cancer cases are expected to rise to 3.5 million by 2050, a third higher than in 2023, with annual deaths climbing 44 percent to 1.4 million, according to a new analysis.
The Global Burden of Disease Study Breast Cancer Collaborators’ study, published in The Lancet Oncology, attributes this to population growth and ageing despite stable cancer incidence and mortality rates.
Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women worldwide, accounting for around one-in-four cancer diagnoses in 2023.
While advances in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of breast cancer have driven down mortality and morbidity, the disease led cancer-related disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) among women globally in 2023, accounting for an estimated 2,30 million cases, 764,000 deaths, and 24.1 million DALYs.
DALYs measure the years of healthy life lost due to premature death and time lived with disability or illness.
“Breast cancer continues to take a profound toll on women’s lives and communities,” said Kayleigh Bhangdia, lead author of the study from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in the United States.
This study provides an updated overview of epidemiological trends and burden of breast cancer across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, with forecasts to 2050.
Changes in risk profiles
Increased obesity, changes in reproductive factors, such as early puberty, delayed childbirth, and late onset of menopause, have reshaped breast cancer risk profiles, the analysis found.
Other risk factors the authors identified were lifestyle changes. Behavioural factors explain 28 percent of the global 2023 breast cancer burden, 6.8 million years of healthy life lost to disability, illness, and early death.
High red meat consumption was linked to around 11 percent of all healthy life lost, followed by tobacco, high blood sugar, high body mass index, alcohol use, and low physical activity.
“With more than a quarter of the global breast cancer burden linked to six modifiable lifestyle changes, there are tremendous opportunities to alter the trajectory of breast cancer risk for the next generation,” said Marie Ng, co-senior author of the study.
She added that targeting known risk factors through public health policies and making healthier choices more accessible is crucial to halting the rise in breast cancers worldwide.
Geographical disparities
In high-income countries, mortality and DALY rates have fallen by approximately 30 percent over the past three decades; however, women in these countries still account for 61 percent of global breast cancer deaths.
The analysis found that, in 2023, incidence rates were on average highest in high-income countries such as Monaco, Andorra, France, Germany, and Ireland.
In Europe, the lowest incidence was in Albania, Ukraine, Moldova, Russia, and Bulgaria.
However, higher incidence registries don’t always mean bad news, as early detection and effective treatments can substantially alter survival prospects.
The authors noted that women in high-income countries typically benefit from screening, more timely diagnosis, and comprehensive treatment strategies.
“The mounting burden of breast cancer is shifting to low- and lower middle-income countries where individuals often face later-stage diagnosis, more limited access to quality care, and higher death rates that are threatening to eclipse progress in women’s health,” Bhangdia said.
