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USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
Michelle R. Martinelli

Breaking down NASCAR’s playoff picture with just 2 regular-season races left

After trips to Watkins Glen International this weekend and Daytona International Speedway the following one, the NASCAR Cup Series regular season will come to an end and the 2023 playoff field will be set.

So far, the only drivers who have qualified for one of the 16 playoff spots are those who have won at least one regular-season race so far. The 13 already in the postseason are:

For everyone else, there are two options to making the postseason: Win one of the next two races and automatically be locked in or sneak in based on points in the standings. With 13 different race winners already, that leaves three vacant playoff spots. So if there are two different first-time winners this season at Watkins Glen and Daytona, only one driver will make the playoffs based on points.

Previous NASCAR Cup Series champs who currently are not locked into the playoffs include Chase Elliott, Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski.

Martin Truex Jr. currently leads the regular-season standings, and that’s important because the regular-season champ earns an extra 15 playoff points. The rest of the top-10 regular-season finishers also receive playoff points on a sliding scale, giving them a little playoff advantage from the start.

1
Martin Truex Jr., No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

(Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

Regular season points: 830
Projected playoff rank: 1
Projected playoff points: 2035

2023 wins: 3
Top-5 finishes: 9
Laps led 828

2
William Byron, No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

(David Jensen/Getty Images)

Regular season points: 726 (-104)
Projected playoff rank: 2
Projected playoff points: 2030

2023 wins: 4
Top-5 finishes: 8
Laps led: 810

3
Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

(Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports)

Regular season points: 770 (-60)
Projected playoff rank: 3
Projected playoff points: 2025

2023 wins: 2
Top-5 finishes: 8
Laps led: 374

4
Kyle Larson, No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

(Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

Regular season points: 698 (-132)
Projected playoff rank: 4
Projected playoff points: 2019

2023 wins: 2
Top-5 finishes: 10
Laps led: 624

5
Kyle Busch, No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet

(Jeff Curry/Getty Images)

Regular season points: 660 (-170)
Projected playoff rank: 5
Projected playoff points: 2017

2023 wins: 3
Top-5 finishes: 8
Laps led: 226

6
Ross Chastain, No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet

(Meg Oliphant/Getty Images)

Regular season points: 676 (-154)
Projected playoff rank: 6
Projected playoff points: 2014

2023 wins: 1
Top-5 finishes: 6
Laps led: 463

7
Christopher Bell, No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

(Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

Regular season points: 709 (-121)
Projected playoff rank: 7
Projected playoff points: 2014

2023 wins: 1
Top-5 finishes: 5
Laps led: 259

8
Chris Buescher, No. 17 RFK Racing Ford

(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Regular season points: 665 (-165)
Projected playoff rank: 8
Projected playoff points: 2012

2023 wins: 2
Top-5 finishes: 5
Laps led: 229

9
Ryan Blaney, No. 12 Team Penske Ford

(Logan Riely/Getty Images)

Regular season points: 666 (-164)
Projected playoff rank: 9
Projected playoff points: 2010

2023 wins: 1
Top-5 finishes: 4
Laps led: 344

10
Tyler Reddick, No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota

(SUZANNE CORDEIRO/AFP via Getty Images)

Regular season points: 653 (-177)
Projected playoff rank: 10
Projected playoff points: 2009

2023 wins: 1
Top-5 finishes: 7
Laps led: 312

11
Joey Logano, No. 22 Team Penske Ford

(Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

Regular season points: 639 (-191)
Projected playoff rank: 11
Projected playoff points: 2008

2023 wins: 1
Top-5 finishes: 7
Laps led: 251

12
Michael McDowell, No. 34 Front Row Motorsports Ford

(Meg Oliphant/Getty Images)

Regular season points: 542 (-288)
Projected playoff rank: 12
Projected playoff points: 2006

2023 wins: 1
Top-5 finishes: 2
Laps led: 75

13
Kevin Harvick, No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford

(Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports)

Regular season points: 677 (-153)
Projected playoff rank: 13
Projected playoff points: 2006

2023 wins: 0
Top-5 finishes: 6
Laps led: 108

14
Brad Keselowski, No. 6 RFK Racing Ford

(Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

Regular season points: 675 (-155)
Projected playoff rank: 14
Projected playoff points: 2006

2023 wins: 0
Top-5 finishes: 5
Laps led: 253

15
Ricky Stenhouse Jr., No. 47 JTG Daugherty Racing Chevrolet

(Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)

Regular season points: 542 (-288)
Projected playoff rank: 15
Projected playoff points: 2005

2023 wins: 1
Top-5 finishes: 2
Laps led: 24

16
Bubba Wallace, No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota

(Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports)

Regular season points: 560 (-270)
Projected playoff rank: 16
Projected playoff points: 2000

2023 wins: 0
Top-5 finishes: 4
Laps led: 159

17
Daniel Suárez, No. 99 Trackhouse Racing Toyota

(Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports)

Regular season points: 532 (-298)
Projected playoff rank: 17
Projected playoff points: N/A

2023 wins: 0
Top-5 finishes: 3
Laps led: 35

18
Ty Gibbs, No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

(Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports)

Regular season points: 511 (-319)
Projected playoff rank: 18
Projected playoff points: N/A

2023 wins: 0
Top-5 finishes: 1
Laps led: 10

19
Chase Elliott, No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet*

(Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports)

Regular season points: 480 (-350)
Projected playoff rank: 19
Projected playoff points: N/A

2023 wins: 0
Top-5 finishes: 6
Laps led: 39

Elliott did not compete in seven races in the 2023 NASCAR season due to injury.

20
Alex Bowman, No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet*

(Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports)

Regular season points: 480
Projected playoff rank: 20
Projected playoff points: N/A

2023 wins: 0
Top-5 finishes: 4
Laps led: 75

Bowman did not compete in three races in the 2023 NASCAR season due to injury.

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