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In a result that defied virtually every pre-election poll, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro finished first in Brazil's October 4 first round with 47%, edging out incumbent President Lula da Silva at 45%, and forcing a runoff on October 25.
- Jair Bolsonaro — who was sentenced to 27 years in prison for plotting a coup but remains under house arrest in Brasília — endorsed his son Flávio, whose campaign has received vocal backing from Donald Trump and Javier Milei.
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The outcome of the runoff carries consequences far beyond Brazil: it will determine whether Latin America's largest economy tilts toward Washington or continues Lula's multi-alignment strategy with China, which is now Brazil's largest trading partner by a factor of more than two to one.
Brazil's first round of presidential voting on October 4 produced one of the biggest polling upsets the country has seen in years. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the 45-year-old eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, finished ahead of incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by roughly two percentage points — 47% to 45% — in a race that every major pollster had projected Lula to lead. Because neither candidate surpassed the 50% threshold required for an outright first-round victory, Brazilians will return to the polls on October 25 for a decisive runoff. What is at stake is not just the leadership of Latin America's largest democracy and biggest economy, but a foreign policy alignment that has become a proxy battlefield for the world's two dominant powers.
