Brazil’s election provided the world yet another example of polls missing the mark, with incumbent Jair Bolsonaro considerably outperforming expectations to prove the far-right wave he rode to the presidency remains a force.
The most-trusted opinion polls had indicated leftist former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was far out front, and potentially even clinching a first-round victory. One prominent pre-election poll gave da Silva a 14 percentage point lead. In the end, Bolsonaro surprised to the upside and came within just 5 points. He will face da Silva in a high-stakes Oct. 30 presidential runoff.
