Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are statistically tied in potential second-round matchups ahead of Brazil’s October presidential election. Two opinion polls released on Monday showed the race tightening.
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According to the Reuters, aa BTG Pactual/Nexus survey put Lula narrowly ahead of Bolsonaro, 47 per cent to 46 per cent, in a simulated runoff. A separate Quaest poll commissioned by Globo showed Bolsonaro numerically ahead for the first time, leading Lula 42 per cent to 40 per cent.
The latest figures mark a shift from the previous surveys. In the BTG Pactual/Nexus poll a week earlier, Bolsonaro led Lula 46 per cent to 45 per cent, his strongest showing in that survey since March. The September 7 Quaest poll had the two candidates tied at 41 per cent each.
The BTG Pactual/Nexus survey also showed Lula maintaining a lead in the first round. He polled at 42 per cent, followed by Bolsonaro at 37 per cent, Augusto Cury at 6 per cent, Ronaldo Caiado at 5 per cent and Renan Santos at 2 per cent, according to the news agency.
The poll surveyed 2,003 people between September 11 and 13, with a margin of error of two percentage points.
In the Quaest first-round scenario, Lula led with 36 per cent, followed by Bolsonaro at 31 per cent. Quaest surveyed 2,004 people from September 10 to 13, also with a two-percentage-point margin of error.
Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, has emerged as Lula’s main challenger after receiving his father’s political backing. His stronger performance has also been welcomed by financial markets, with Brazilian assets rallying last week as investors viewed the senator as more market-friendly.
The first round is scheduled for October 4. If no candidate secures more than 50 per cent of valid votes, the top two will face each other in a runoff on October 25.
If Lula wins, he would surpass his own record as Brazil’s oldest elected president. The 80-year-old president is seeking another term as the closely fought race enters its final weeks.
Bolsonaro has also sought to reassure voters about his approach to the election process. In an interview with TV Globo’s Jornal Nacional on Friday, he said, “I will respect the electoral process; I will respect the results.”
His candidacy comes as his father serves a 27-year prison sentence after being convicted by Brazil’s Supreme Court over a plot to overturn his 2022 election defeat to Lula.
Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva told US President Donald Trump to “stay out” of Brazil’s October elections, while acknowledging his right to have an electoral preference. The remarks came during the July G7 summit in Switzerland, after Trump called Brazil “a little rough” and “dangerous politically”.
