Brandon Staley nearly slipped back under .500. The Los Angeles Chargers head coach, in charge of a team that’s failed to meet early expectations as a potential Super Bowl contender, was challenged early and often against the Cleveland Browns.
The Browns took an early 14-0 lead at home before LA battled back. The two teams swapped the lead back and forth before a Jacoby Brissett interception late in the fourth quarter — his third in his last four games — snuffed out a Cleveland scoring drive in the end zone and gave the Chargers a chance to salt out the clock with a 30-28 lead.
Following an early first down, Staley faced a difficult decision staring down fourth-and-two at his own 46-yard line. There was 1:13 left in the game and the Browns were out of timeouts.
A gain of two would end the game. Failing would give Brissett the ball one first down from field goal range. The alternative was a punt that would guarantee Cleveland one final possession, but from deep in its own territory.
Staley trusted his offense to gain two yards and end the game. He chose poorly.
Browns get the ball back with 1:10 remaining!
📺: #LACvsCLE on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/psZXYKacT9 pic.twitter.com/qyhuFzb8yc— NFL (@NFL) October 9, 2022
Even though the play failed to work out, it was the right decision. Not only did he have an offense that had gained 465 yards to that point — 6.7 yards per play — but he was also staring down a Browns offense that had been even more efficient (6.8 yards per play). Trusting his offense over his defense was a logical decision. It’s one win probability algorithms backed up as well.
ESPN's model also strong go for it https://t.co/Vefhb8DaW3
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 9, 2022
In both The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and ESPN’s Seth Walder’s models, going for it significantly increased the Chargers’ odds of a win. The bigger issue may be Staley’s play call, which opted not to give the ball to Austin Ekeler (16 carries, 173 yards on the day but only three yards on two carries earlier in this drive) and instead throw short to Mike Williams.
While that pass fell incomplete, it didn’t matter. Cade York’s 54-yard field goal attempt sailed wide right following a six-play, 10-yard Browns drive. Staley escaped and the Chargers improved to 3-2. Now we wait and see whether Week 5’s failure changes the way Staley approaches his late possessions moving forward or if he’ll stick to the gambles that bring him the best chance of winning, even if they’re not a lock.
