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USA Today Sports Media Group
USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
Justin Quinn

Boston’s Jayson Tatum seen as fourth-most likely to score 30+ points per game

While a lot of NBA analysts are thinking that pretty much every starter on the Boston Celtics is going to need to sacrifice some of their offensive game for the Celtics to be at their best with so much star power in their six best players, one prominent NBA analyst is zagging to their zig.

Bleacher Report’s Dan Favale recently pegged All-NBA Celtics forward Jayson Tatum as the fourth-most likely player in the league to average 30 or more points per game in 2023-24 despite the general consensus multiple if not all of Boston’s starters might see fewer touches this season.

“Figuring out where to put Jayson Tatum demanded more brainpower than anybody else on this list,” writes Favale.

“On the one hand, he just averaged more than 30 points per game last year and still has one of the NBA’s most complete scoring packages,” says Favale, “an every-level armory featuring everything from ridiculously difficult off-the-bounce 3s and mid-rangers to streaking dunks on the break and blow-bys in semi-transition to bullying drives from a standstill and ascendant contact-drawing.”

“On the other hand, the top of the Boston Celtics’ roster is stacked. Despite already topping 30 points this season, it isn’t immediately clear how much scoring volume Tatum will ferry with Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, and Kristaps Porzingis by his side.”

“Opening night against the New York Knicks put some of the ambiguity to bed,” suggests the B/R analyst. “Brown and Holiday won’t combine for just 21 shots between them every game, but Tatum is no less critical to the Celtics’ offensive operation.”

“They will entrust him to run crunch-time offense, and the rotation outside the starting five is shallow enough that he could end up logging 36-plus minutes per game.”

While we’d characterize this as on the bold side of a projection, we also think it not only possible but within the realm of plausible. It’s on the upper end of that curve, but if Tatum is the MVP candidate many think he is, that’s right about where he’ll need to be in terms of scoring to win.

Listen to the “Celtics Lab” podcast on:

Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3zBKQY6

Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3GfUPFi

YouTube: https://bit.ly/3F9DvjQ

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