Boris Johnson faces a double by-election disaster in votes taking place today, according to the elections expert Professor Sir John Curtice.
The widely respected polling guru has predicted that the Conservatives will lose two key by-elections taking place in the wake of political scandals forcing the resignation of sitting Tory MPs.
Curtice said Labour should regain Wakefield, Yorkshire, which they lost to the Conservatives at the last general election in 2019 after former MP Imran Khan was found guilty of sexually assaulting a teenage boy.
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Meanwhile, in Devon the Lib Dems could overturn a 24,000 Tory majority in the Tiverton and Honiton by-election caused by the resignation of porn-watching MP Neil Parish.
A stunning Lib Dem victory depends on Labour voters backing the Lib Dem candidate to pull the party from third to first place.
It would be the first time in 30 years since a sitting prime minister has suffered a double by-election defeat on the same day.
Writing in The Independent, Curtice said: “A swing of a little less than four per cent from Conservative to Labour in Wakefield would be sufficient for Sir Keir Starmer to reclaim the seat and register his party’s first by-election gain under his leadership.
“Labour ought to have little difficulty in surmounting this hurdle.”
However, the polling expert said Labour need to win by around 20 points - a swing of around 14 per cent since 2019 - to show they are on course for government at the next election.
Lib Dem leader Ed Davey guarded against complacency, insisting that the race is “neck and neck”.
He said: “This is a once in a generation chance to end years of neglect and get a better deal for Devon, by backing the Liberal Democrats.”
The Prime Minister will not be in the UK when the result is announced, having flown to Rwanda for a Commonwealth summit before heading back to Europe for G7 and Nato meetings on the weekend.
Counting will take place overnight in both constituencies and the results in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton are expected between 4am and 6am on Friday morning.
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