Boris Johnson is in for a hellish day - and a hellish month.
One thousand days since taking office, the Prime Minister will return to Parliament today after its Easter break to face the music after he became the first PM ever to commit a criminal offence.
He will then try to cling to office as he faces his angry Tory MPs, a possible contempt of parliament vote, PMQs, and to cap it all a trip to India.
That’s all before Thursday - and is not to mention more Partygate police fines, fights over divisive Bills, Rwanda rows, the cost of living, local elections and the Queen’s Speech.
Here’s your guide to the next three months in British politics…
3.30pm statement to Parliament
The Prime Minister will today give a statement to Parliament, at 3.30pm or later. It will be his first to MPs since he paid a £50 fixed penalty notice from the Met Police for breaking his own lockdown laws.
Yet he will try to downplay lawbreaking because the war in Ukraine is raging.
A close ally of the PM told The Times “mistakes were made”, but he would tell colleagues there was “always an exemption for work and people were working in close proximity in No10 for very long hours.”
Any attempt to underplay the scale is set to prompt howls of protest - especially as the PM could yet receive several more fines.
Tory ‘clear the air’ meeting as plotters regroup
The Prime Minister will address a rare meeting of the full Conservative parliamentary party this evening in a bid to ‘clear the air’.
While only just over a dozen MPs are calling on him to resign, that number could surge if his response to the fine goes down badly.
Ex-minister Andrew Mitchell said “when Parliament returns no doubt we will look at these matters,” suggesting plotters would recoup.
Even if he survives the meeting, which in all likelihood he will, he’s not out of the woods as more fines could come later.
It takes 54 letters of no confidence to the backbench 1922 Committee to prompt a vote of no-confidence in the leader.
Vote on ‘contempt of Parliament’ probe
Opposition MPs want a probe into whether Boris Johnson deliberately misled Parliament by claiming “all guidance was followed completely” in No10.
They were in talks with the Speaker about holding a vote to refer the matter to the Privileges Committee. It’s thought that vote could be held on Wednesday, after the PM faces MPs at Prime Minister’s Questions.
If approved the committee could investigate and find Boris Johnson in contempt of parliament - like War Secretary John Profumo after he lied about an affair in 1963. If found guilty he could even be suspended from the Commons.
But the committee could not start a probe unless MPs vote for it, and the PM still has an 80-odd seat majority. So an investigation seems unlikely - but the vote would be an eye-catching device to shame Tory MPs into action.
Challenges over India and Ukraine
The Prime Minister will try to look busy over Ukraine and a trip to India, but those bring their own problems.
Today the PM will join a major joint call on Ukraine hosted by Joe Biden with Canadian, French, German, Polish, Italian, Romanian and Japanese leaders, the NATO chief and European Commission President.
But with sanctions and weapons deliveries already deployed, it is tricky to go further without incurring all-out war. And Putin is preparing a fresh assault in eastern Ukraine.
After PMQs tomorrow, Mr Johnson will kick off a visit to India in a bid to push forward talks on a post-Brexit free trade deal.
But there could be tensions there as India has been less forthright than Britain in criticising Putin’s regime and there is heavy pressure for the country to go further.
More Partygate fines from police
Boris Johnson has admitted he could be handed further fines by the Met Police, who are still probing five other events he attended.
Each fine would be double the last, with barrister Adam Wagner suggesting the PM could end up on the hook for more than £10,000 in total.
The financial impact is less important than the political one. Currently the PM’s allies are downplaying the lawbreaking by saying the June 2020 birthday party was only nine minutes long and he sandwiched it between meetings.
If we’re talking about evening drinks, that defence becomes less tenable.
Last-minute fights over divisive Bills
It’s just a couple of weeks before Parliament is prorogued ahead of the Queen’s Speech. But two of his most controversial Bills of the session, the Police Bill crackdown on protests and Nationality and Borders Bill on the asylum system, still aren’t finished.
Both are tied up in last-ditch tussles between the rebellious Lords and Tory-dominated Commons.
While the Police Bill has a “carry-over motion” allowing it to continue it’s not finished before the Queen’s Speech, the Borders Bill does not and could collapse if it doesn’t get Royal Assent in time.
MPs will next consider the Borders Bill on Wednesday and the Police Bill at a later date.
Cost-of-living crisis bites even harder
This is only the second week of a real-terms cut to benefits and pensions after they rose 3.1% on April 11, and only the third week of the National Insurance hike.
It’s also nearly three weeks since energy bills rose by £693 a year overnight on April 1. All that takes time to feed through - and will be hitting more families now as monthly bills and payslips drop.
The PM has reportedly ordered Cabinet ministers to look at how their departments can help cut the cost of living. But MPs could find inboxes inundated by the needy.
Court challenges over Rwanda flights
Plans announced last week mean anyone who arrived “illegally” in the UK under a new crackdown can be deemed “inadmissible” to claim asylum in Britain.
The UK will then detain them before forcing them onto a charter flight to Rwanda, and telling them to make an asylum claim there instead.
But the Home Office’s top civil servant said there was not enough evidence it would have “a deterrent effect significant enough to make the policy value for money.”
Boris Johnson has admitted there will be court fights - and with him trying to start flights by the end of May, these could be expected to materialise very soon.
Local elections - and fallout
All this leads to the first big Partygate test at the ballot box - the local elections on Thursday 5 May, less than three weeks from now.
More than 5,000 council seats are up for grabs in 197 councils across Britain on May 5 - mainly in Labour-held areas.
One poll - dismissed as ‘expectation management’ by a Labour MP - predicted the Tories would drop 810 seats in England and Wales, from 1,965 to 1,155, compared to their performance the last time the seats were up for grabs.
Both sides insist they would do well to hold about steady and there will be plenty of spin. But a large number of seats or even whole councils changing hands would sharpen the anger at - or delight with - the PM from his own grassroots.
Queen’s Speech is the finish line - and the start
After all that, we have the Queen’s Speech and State Opening of Parliament for another year on Tuesday 10 May.
Through the then 96-year-old monarch, Boris Johnson will channel his plan for government in a crucial session as a 2024 election creeps ever closer.
There is huge pressure on him to finally put the much-delayed Employment Bill in the Queen’s Speech, allowing more flexible working and other reforms post-Covid.
Expect anger though if there is not enough in there to tackle the cost of living or achieve his manifesto goals, which were crystallised in levelling-up and energy white papers critics dismissed as too vague.
