Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s main rival in Turkey’s presidential election received a boost on Thursday when a struggling opposition contender withdrew from Sunday’s race.
Muharrem Ince, leader of the centre-left Homeland Party, has faced intense criticism for splintering the votes of the six-party alliance which has united behind Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
“I am withdrawing from the race,” Mr Ince told reporters. “I am doing this for my country.”
He did not specifically endorse Mr Kilicdaroglu, but analysts agree the shock decision is most likely to benefit him in the race to 50 per cent in the first round of voting.
Mr Ince, a 58-year-old former physics teacher, had seen his opinion poll ratings fall from eight per cent to around two per cent. His Homeland Party is still running in the parallel parliamentary elections.
His withdrawal – late enough that his name will still be on ballot papers – could reshape the last days of campaigning in what is seen as Erdogan's biggest test in his two-decade reign.
“God willing, our nation will take the necessary step in the days ahead so that we will (succeed) in the first round," said Gultekin Uysal, leader of the centre-right Democrat Party.
An opinion poll conducted by Konda before Mr Ince’s decision put support for Erdogan on 43.7 per cent and Kilicdaroglu on 49.3 per cent, leaving him short of the majority needed to win in the first round and suggesting the election would go to a 28 May runoff.
“The possibility of Kemal Kilicdaroglu winning has increased with Ince's withdrawal. I would not be surprised if he got 51 per cent,” said Bekir Agirdir, manager of Konda.
Erdogan's re-election bid has been complicated by a cost-of-living crisis, triggered by a lira slump and soaring inflation, and a devastating earthquake in February, which killed more than 50,000 people in Turkey and left millions homeless.
Ince had drawn the ire of many of Kilicdaroglu supporters during the campaign for potentially splitting the vote.
“There is no doubt that Erdogan is facing a majority that wants change – and that includes younger people,” said Asli Aydintasbas, a Brookings Institution visiting fellow. “The only question is whether folks believe Kilicdaroglu is that agent of change. Whether he barely wins or not, I feel like the Erdogan era is over.”
A fourth presidential candidate, far-right nationalist Sinan Ogan, is polling at about 4.8 per cent.
Hakan Akbas, managing director of Strategic Advisory Services, an Istanbul-based political advisory, said Erdogan aims to get to a second round vote against Kilicdaroglu.
“Given the earthquakes and economic crisis, this would still be a success for him. What matters now, even more, is parliamentary results,” he said.
If there is a hung parliament, Erdogan could portray himself as bringing stability in a run-off, he said.
Reuters and Associated Press contributed to this report
