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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

UK 30-year borrowing costs hit highest since 1998 as bond market sell-off grips markets – as it happened

Tesco United States Inflation Interest Rates ​​Rishi Sunak United Kingdom Dow
Trader John Conlon on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange last night, as falling bond prices spook investors
Trader John Conlon on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange last night, as falling bond prices spook investors Photograph: Richard Drew/AP

Closing post

Time to wrap up….

A rout in the global bond market appears to have cooled this afternoon, after government borrowing costs hit multiyear highs.

UK 30-year gilt yields (the interest rate on the bond) soared to levels last seen in 1998, trading above 5.1%, as anxiety grew that central banks will leave interest rates high for longer than hoped.

US 10-year Treasury bill yields hit their highest level in 16 years, while Germany’s borrowing costs were the highest since 2011.

But the slump in bond prices has reversed in late trading, after unexpectedly weak jobs data showed fewer new hires than expected last month.

This has pulled the UK 30-year bond yield back to around 5% tonight.

The oil price has also weakened, after Opec+ indicated it will leave its output targets unchanged while Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed their commitment to additional cuts until the end of the year.

Here’s the rest of today’s stories:

Updated

Central banks risk tipping a stalling global economy into a full-blown recession unless they relax their 2% inflation targets and adopt a more pro-growth stance, the economic arm of the UN has warned.

Pointing to evidence of a looming debt crisis in poor countries, the UN said the sharp rises in interest rates from the major central banks since 2021 had increased inequality and reduced investment but proved a blunt anti-inflation weapon.

The annual report from the Geneva-based UN Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) said global growth was set to slow from 3% in 2022 to 2.4% in 2023, with little sign of a rebound next year.

Richard Kozul-Wright, the director of Unctad’s globalisation and development strategies division, said:

“The global economy is stalling, with Europe teetering on the edge of recession, China facing strong headwinds and financial stresses are reappearing in the United States.

Here’s an explainer about the drama in the bond markets:

FTSE 100 closes in the red

Britain’s FTSE 100 index has ended the day at its lowest closing level since the end of August.

The blue-chip index has closed 57 points lower at 7,412 points, down 0.77% today.

Hotel operator Whitbread (-3.77%), gambling group Entain (-3.7%) and weapons maker BAE Systems (-3.6%) led the fallers.

Oil companies also dropped, tracking the falling crude price, while the drop in tobacco company shares also weighed on the FTSE.

Michael Hewson of CMC Markets explains:

Imperial Brands and British American Tobacco have come under pressure on today’s announcement that the UK will raise the legal smoking age over time, although it can’t have been too much of a surprise to see it confirmed given recent briefings. There will also be restrictions on the purchase of vaping products to children, looking at flavours, packaging as well as disposability, meaning that the industry is likely to feel the pressure on both side of its business, on traditional as well as NGP revenue streams.

The defence sector is also feeling the heat on concerns over future US spending, after a commitment to spend another $6bn for future Ukraine aid was left out of the latest US government funding plan, with BAE Systems sliding to 5-week lows

Updated

New orders for U.S.-made goods increased more than expected in August and shipments accelerated, new data shows.

It could support hopes that US economic growth strengthened in the third quarter, despite persistent worries about a recession that have rocked the bond markets.

Factory orders rebounded 1.2% after falling 2.1% in July, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a rise of 0.2%.

On an annual basis, orders rose 0.5% in August.

The wider stock market is having a rough day too, with the FTSE 100 index down around 1% in late trading.

Back in the City, shares in tobacco firms are sliding after Rishi Sunak announced he plans to introduce a new law banning tobacco sales to anybody born on or after January 1 2009.

Imperial Brands, which makes Davidoff, West and Gauloises cigarettes, Golden Virginia and Drum tobacco and Rizla rolling paper, are now down 3.6%, knocking around £500m off its market value.

Larger rival British American Tobacco are down 1.8%, knocking around £1bn off its value.

Also in New York, Sam Bankman-Fried’s cryptocurrency fraud trial has entered its second day – we’re live-blogging events here:

Updated

After a rough day yesterday, Wall Street has opened a little higher.

The S&P 500 index of US stocks has gained 0.25%, or 10 points, to 4,240 points, as the weaker-than-expected ADP Payroll report calms some fears over high interest rates.

The dollar is weakening, after the weak ADP Payroll report on US job creation last month (see earlier post).

This has pushed the pound up to $1.216, away from the six-month low of $1.2035 hit this morning.

Bond yields slip back after weak US payroll report

Newflash: Some calm is returning to the bond markets, after a new survey showed much fewer jobs were created at US companies last month than expected.

Payroll operator ADP has reported that private sector employment across the US increased by 89,000 jobs in September, a long way shy of the 153,000 increase which Wall Street economists expected.

This may be a sign that America’s labor market cooled last month – we get the official non-farm payroll report on the jobs market on Friday.

In response, US bond yields have slipped back, as traders grasp onto hopes that a weaker jobs market could lead to lower interest rates.

This has pulled US Treasury yields away from the 16-year highs set this morning.

Updated

ING have released their latest forecasts for interest rates, which reckon the big four central banks will not raise borrowing costs higher.

They predict:

  • Federal Reserve: No further rate hikes with cuts starting from Spring 2024

  • European Central Bank: No further rate hikes and the first rate cut in summer 2024

  • Bank of England: No more rate hikes and the first rate cuts from summer 2024

  • Bank of Japan: Another tweak to the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy but no change in the policy rate until the second quarter of 2024

ING's forecasts for central bank interest rate moves

Analysts are concerned that the sharp moves in the bond markets in recent days are likely to inflict damage on parts of the financial system.

“No one knows when this is going to stop,” said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING, via the Financial Times.

“It feels like something is going to snap but I’m not quite sure what.”

Full story: UK long-term borrowing costs hit 25-year high

Britain’s long-term cost of borrowing has hit its highest level since 1998, as political instability in the US and fears of sustained high levels of inflation triggered a sell-off in global bond markets.

The yield, or interest rate, on 30-year UK government bonds hit 5.115% in morning trading, according to financial data provider Refinitiv.

The rise, which takes the UK’s borrowing costs above the level seen a year ago in the crisis after Liz Truss’s mini-budget, follows growing concerns that central banks will keep interest rates at the high levels through 2024 and possibly into 2025.

With most governments borrowing huge sums throughout the pandemic and to cushion the blow over the last year from high energy prices, traders expect countries with high levels of debt to struggle financially.

A surge in US government borrowing and political instability after the removal of US House speaker Kevin McCarthy on Tuesday pushed Treasury yields to a 16-year high.

Germany has also found itself in traders’ sight lines amid reports of strains within its ruling coalition, pushing the 10-year German yield to its highest level in 12 years. The interest rate on the country’s benchmark 10-year debt rose above 3% for the first time since 2011, while its 30-year yield also hit a 12-year high.

The surge in bond yields is cooling America’s housing market.

New data this morning shows that total mortgage demand in the US fell by 6% compared with the previous week.

Applications weakened as US mortgage rates hit 7.5% for the first since November 2000, as the jump in US government bond yields drove up borrowing costs.

Rishi Sunak scraps HS2 leg to Manchester

It’s official, the rest of the HS2 rail project is being scrapped.

Prime minister Rishi Sunak has just told the Conservative Party conference that he is ending the “long-running saga” of the high-speed rail line, saying:

I am cancelling the rest of the HS2 project, and in its place we will reinvest every single penny, £36bn, in hundreds of new transport projects in the North and the Midlands, across the country.

Sunak explains that the line from Birmingham to London Euston will be completed (rather than terminating in Old Oak Common in the capital’s western suburbs, as had been rumoured).

HS2 trains will still run to Manchester, he adds (but not on new high-speed lines).

Andrew Sparrow’s Politics Live blog has all the action:

This is despite Britain’s biggest HS2 contractors launching an 11th-hour effort to convince Rishi Sunak not to cancel the high-speed rail line to Manchester…..

… and the news that the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands is considering quitting over Rishi Sunak’s decision to cancel the high-speed train line between Birmingham and Manchester.

Updated

UK business downturn lesss severe than feared

The UK’s services sector suffered its weakest performance for eight months in September, but the downturn was less severe than first thought.

The latest poll of purchasing managers UK services firms found that business activity and new work continue to decline last month.

Companies cut jobs at the fastest rate since January 2021.

This pulled the UK Services PMI down to 49.3 for September, down from 49.5 in August, deeper into contraction territory.

It’s the lowest level since January, but above the earlier ‘flash’ reading for September which was 47.2, taking during the month.

This suggests that the Bank of England’s decision to leave interest rates on hold on 21st September may have improved business conditions.

It feels gloomy in the markets today, with a ‘higher rates for longer’ assumption helping to sour sentiment,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“This is reflected in the sell-off in bonds – with US government bond yields hitting levels last seen in 2007, not a year with particularly happy memories for investors.

“The most recent catalysts include the JOLTS job openings survey, which showed a surprisingly buoyant US labour market, and the uncertainty across the Atlantic created by a closely averted government shutdown and the shock ousting of Republican speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy.

Eurozone business activity contracts again

The latest economic data from the eurozone has highlighted the economic slowdown in Europe.

The eurozone economy ended the third quarter with another contraction, according to the latest survey of purchasing managers.

S&P Global’s PMI survey shows that new orders at eurozone companies fell at the fastest rate in almost three years, while output fell across both the manufacturing and service companies.

Overall, the HCOB Eurozone composite PMI output index rose to 47.2, up from August’s 46.7, but still below the 50-point mark showing stagnation.

Dr Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, explains:

“The HCOB Composite PMI for the Eurozone did rebound a bit. However, we can’t jump on the hope train yet. Blame it on new business, which is plummeting especially in Germany and France.

Accordingly, outstanding business continued to decline, and business expectations fell further below their long-term average.

Here’s a great breakdown of today’s market moves, from Bloomberg’s Sofia Horta e Costa:

The oil price, a good gauge of global growth prospects, is weaker this morning.

Brent crude has dropped by around 1%, to $89.99 per barrel, less than a week after hitting $97.69 per barrel.

Oil had been pushed up last month by supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia, but is now sliding on fears that high interest rates will hit growth, and demand for energy.

Callum Macpherson, Head of Commodities at Investec, explains:

“Saudi Arabia has confirmed that its additional voluntary cut will continue as planned and so will remain at a 1mb/d cut during November.

Had equity and bond markets not fallen heavily in recent days, news of this confirmation that Saudi Arabia will continue to make the market tight, might well have lifted Brent from the high 90s through 100 $/b. But investors that had recently started to move back into oil on all the talk of prices reaching 100, have headed for the exit as oil has followed other markets lower and is now bumping along around 90.

Market attention has shifted from the focus on the short term tightness to the implications of interest rates staying higher for longer, the subdued macro environment that entails, and how OPEC+ plans to deal with that when it meets on 26th November.

Here’s a chart showing the jump in Germany’s borrowing costs, amid the global bond rout:

Neil Wilson of Markets.com says the moves in the bond markets are also driven by concerns about government deficits, and structurally higher inflation in the West.

Wilson also points out that central banks are unwinding some of their bond-buying stimulus packages, which creates more sellers in the market.

Central banks are no longer buying bonds, they are selling them. This is a mechanistic explanation but simple and true – someone else has to buy the debt and there is a lot more of it now.

This can only result in lower prices, higher yields. The great bond bull market is dead, a new bear market is taking over – this is the paradigm shift we have been talking about for at least the last three years. This means stocks stuck in multi-year ranges – no new highs and the lows are not yet in.

He also reminds us of a classic quote about the power of the bond market:

An oldie but a goodie: Bill Clinton’s chief strategist James Carville once said that if he were to be reincarnated he’d want to come back as the bond market. “You can intimidate everybody,” he famously said. We are seeing some of this power now with some tremendous destruction of capital in fixed income markets.

It has the feel that something is about to break…but beware linear thinking.

The cost of insuring UK government debt against the risk of default has hit its highest level in a year this morning, but remains very low.

The cost of insuring against other government defaults using a credit default swap has also risen, as the rout in global bond prices shakes the markets. But again, we’re still at low levels.

Reuters has the details:

Five-year credit default swaps (CDS), a derivative that pays its holder in the event of an issuer defaulting, for UK sovereign debt rose 1 basis point on the day to 32 basis points, the highest since October 21 last year, at the tail-end of Liz Truss’s stint as Britain’s shortest-serving prime minister, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

French 5-year CDS rose to 28 bps, highest since May 18, from 27 bps at the last close, while Italian 5-year CDS jumped to 112 bps, their highest since May 11, from 109 bps on Tuesday, the data showed.

But to reiterate, these levels still show a very low risk of default.

For example, back in 2011, Greek five-year CDSs hit a record 1,600 bps, meaning it cost €1.6m to protect €10m of exposure to Greek bonds, as Athens headed towards a second bailout.

[Also, the UK should never need to default as it controls its own currency, and can print as many pounds as needed to service its debts. However, that is inflationary, and puts off bond buyers. There’s a good take on the history of all this here, by Bond Vigilantes).

Bill Blain: Are we risking a repeat of 1987?

This morning “the mood feels bleak”, reports Bill Blain, market strategist at Shard Capital.

In his latest Morning Porridge note (highly recommended, by the way), Blain says:

Stocks are having an existential crisis – it might be momentary, or maybe not. Bond yields rising on the expectation of higher for longer. The markets is concerned about debt quantum, currency stability and politics.

Graphs showing rising interest rates can spell trouble for stocks (No Sh*t Sherlock award to anyone that ever spotted that before.)

I can’t help but reminisce. We have been here before.

And by ‘before’, Blain is referring to 1987, which saw that global stock market crash of Black Monday.

October is often a shocking month for prices, Blain points out.

And cites an article by Bloomberg’s John Authers, which points out that several market commentators that have spotted the connection.

Authers (here) has produced several examples of “horror chart porn”, which show that the Nasdaq index’s progress this year is spookily similar to the Dow in 1987 (which was itself rather close to the Dow in 1928 to the Great Crash of 1929).

This does not mean we are inevitably heading for another crash, of course. After all, US corporate earnings this year are expected to be rosy.

But concerns about a looming US recession are still looming.

Authers writes:

Even so, a recession, according to Tikehau’s Raphael Thuin, is still on the table as the lagged effects of the Fed’s aggressive monetary tightening finally trickle in. “The estimate is 12 to 24 months,” he said, referring to how long it usually takes for the rate hikes to hit the economy; the Fed started to raise the fed funds rate 18 months ago. “It’s exactly now. We are starting to see some effects.”

To Stuart Kaiser, Citigroup head of US equity trading strategy, the earnings season is more of a “wildcard.” He said he expects a repeat of the second quarter, which was “neutral at best for equities given a higher bar.

Or, as Bill Blain puts it:

Who are we trying to fool? Rising bond yields, higher for longer rates, recession fears, crashing consumption, yet stocks believing earnings could still push them higher? Are we at risk of a realisation moment and a repeat of 1987 or maybe something worse?

Updated

This week’s bond market gyrations are all about investors adjusting to interest rates remaining higher for longer than hoped, reports Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz and president of Queens’ College, Cambridge.

Reuters: UK regulator to push for probe into Amazon, Microsoft cloud dominance

There could be drama in the technology and communication world this week too.

Reuters are reporting that media regulator Ofcom will push for an antitrust investigation into Amazon and Microsoft’s dominance of the UK’s cloud computing market.

Ofcom is expected to issue a final report into cloud computing tomomorrow. Back in April, it indicated it could refer the market for investigation by the Competition and Markets Authority.

Reuters says:

British media regulator Ofcom will this week push for an antitrust investigation into Amazon and Microsoft’s dominance of the UK’s cloud computing market, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

Between them, Amazon and Microsoft enjoy a combined market share of 60-70% of Britain’s cloud computing industry. Meanwhile, their closest competitor, Alphabet’s Google, has closer to 10%.

BoE governor: There could be further large shocks ahead

The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, has warned that there could be further ‘large shocks’ looming.

In an interview with Prospect magazine, published this morning, Bailey warns that further, unknown, shocks could be lurking ahead.

Here’s the key section of the interview:

He quotes approvingly a speech by the ECB president, Christine Lagarde, at the annual gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

She described a world of economic fragmentation, where geopolitics is becoming more transactional and the risk of external shocks is commensurately higher.

“I think she’s right on that point at the moment, sadly, of course. And so this is important, because we have seen these shocks and I think we have to be prepared for whatever comes next. That there could be further large shocks that we don’t know about.”

Then again, it would be more surprising if there weren’t more shocks to come, given the last 15 years have seen the Great Financial Crisis, the eurozone debt crisis, Brexit, Covid-19, last year’s mini-budget, and war in Europe.

Both equities (shares) and bonds are under pressure today, reports Victoria Scholar, Head of Investment at interactive investor:

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.86%, hitting fresh 2007 highs. Long-term US yields hit 16-year highs while Germany’s 10-year yield surged above 3% for the first time since June 2011.

The moves have been driven by forecasts for higher for longer interest rates and strong US economic data that could embolden the Fed to carry out further tightening.

All eyes are on Friday’s labour market figures with a strong US jobs report likely to exacerbate the market’s nervousness.

UK 30-year borrowing costs hit highest since 1998

Britain’s long-term cost of borrowing has hit its highest level since 1998 this morning, as the sell-off in the bond market continues.

The yield, or interest rate, on 30-year UK government bonds has hit 5.115% this morning, Refinitiv data shows.

That is above the levels seen a year ago in the panic after Liz Truss’s mini-budget.

This rise in yields comes as the price of 30-year UK government bonds falls again, as investors anticipate that global interest rates will remain higher for longer than hoped.

Traders are now thinking inflation will be more sticky, so even if rates don’t rise much higher, base rate cuts will happen less quickly.

Shorter-dated UK government bond prices are also weakening, with the yield on 10-year gilts hitting its highest since August this morning, at 4.669%.

These rising borrowing costs will give chancellor Jeremy Hunt less room for spending rises or tax cuts in his autumn statement, as they reflect the cost of issuing new government debt.

This surge in UK borrowing costs comes amid a global selloff this week, with US Treasury yields hitting their highest since 2007 and German borrowing costs the highest since 2011 this morning (see here).

As explained in this morning’s introduction, traders fear the central banks such as the US Federal Reserve will keep borrowing costs painfully high for longer than hoped as they try to crush inflationary pressures, potentially creating a recession.

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, explains:

The bond sell off has been bedding in with the yield on 30-year Treasuries shooting to levels not seen for 16 years.

This is already pushing fresh Federal borrowing into ‘ouch territory’ and there are concerns yields could inch even higher.

The sell off in long-term government bonds has been spreading in Europe too. Yields on 30-year gilts have headed above 5%, with investors demanding more interest to buy in, giving ministers less wiggle room to ease cost-of-living pain through tax cuts or public sector pay offers, particularly given the UK government’s self-imposed borrowing rules.

Updated

European markets open in the red

European stock markets have opened lower, as the bond market selloff continues to worry investors.

In London, the FTSE 100 index has dropped by 28 points, or 0.4%, to 7442 points, the lowest since 8 September.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 is down 0.5%, with Germany’s DAX index losing 0.7% at the open.

Nikkei slumps after bond market sell-off hit the Dow

An electric monitor displaying the Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar and Nikkei share average in Tokyo today.
An electric monitor displaying the Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar and Nikkei share average in Tokyo today. Photograph: Issei Kato/Reuters

Equity markest are also being hit by fears that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer to tame inflation.

Last night, the US Dow Jones industrial average shed 430 points, or 1.29%, in its worst day since March. The Dow is now in the red for 2023.

And in Tokyo today, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index has tumbled by over 2%.

Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, says investors had been too confidence that US interest rates would start to fall – and are now rethinking that idea:

“Recent developments support our view that markets had become overly confident in pricing a rapid easing of the Fed’s monetary policy. While we expect equity and bond market conditions to improve, we forecast choppy and range-bound trading in equity markets in the near term, as well as a reverse in the recent rise in longer duration yields.”

German bond yield hit highest since 2011

Germany’s government bonds are also caught up in the selloff, as trading begins in the markets this morning.

The yield (interest rate) on German 10-year bunds has risen above 3%, for the first time since 2011 [reminder, yields rise when prices fall].

The yield, or interest rate, on 10-year German bunds over the last 20 years
The yield, or interest rate, on 10-year German bunds over the last 20 years Photograph: Refinitiv

Germany’s 30-year bund yields are also at a 12-year high, Reuters reports, rising by 5 basis points to 3.245%.

Tesco says food inflation will keep falling, as profits surge

Supermarket giant Tesco has predicted that food inflation will continue to fall, as it raises its profit guidance after a strong start to the year.

In its interim financial results, just released, Tesco signalled that the cost of living squeeze was easing.

Ken Murphy, Tesco chief executive, says:

Food inflation fell across the half and while external pressures remain, we expect that it will continue to do so in the second half of the year.

Yesterday, the British Retail Consortum reported that food prices in the UK fell on a monthly basis in September, for the first time in two years.

Tesco cites price cuts to items such as milk, pasta and cooking oil in June, and says that around 2,500 products were on average 12% cheaper than at the start of the year.

Tesco also reported an 8.9% rise in group sales, and a 13.5% rise in underlying earnings.

The group, which has a 27% share of Britain’s grocery market, now expected to make a retail adjusted operating profit of between £2.6bn and £2.7bn, up from a previous forecst of around £2.5bn.

On a pre-tax basis, profits are up 207%, rising from £396m to £1.217bn in the 26 weeks ended 26 August 2023.

Introduction: Bond sell-off intensifies as interest rate fears grip markets

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the latest economic and financial news.

An accelerating bond selloff is driving up the cost of government borrowing, as the financial markets fret about high interest rates.

The yield, or interest rate, on 30-year UK government bonds has hit 5% for the first time since the panic after the mini-budget a year ago.

Across the Atlantic, the yield on 30-year US Treasuries hit a 16-year high last night, as the bond selloff rocked currencies such as the yen and the rouble.

Jim Reid, strategist at Deutsche Bank, explains:

The last 24 hours saw the relentless bond sell-off continue, with yields rising to fresh multi-year highs on both sides of the Atlantic.

Bond prices are sliding, pushing up yields, because investors fear that interest rates will remain high as central banks try to push down inflation. The selloff appears to have been triggered by stronger-than-expected economic data from the US, which showed a surprise rise in job vacancies in August.

That may force the US Federal Reserve to push borrowing costs even higher, as it tries to squeeze out inflationary pressures.

These high yields in the bond market indicate how much it will cost governments to issue new debt to pay for current spending needs. Two years ago, the UK’s 30-year gilt yield was just 1.5% – a great opportunity to borrow cheaply to fund long-term investment.

Also coming up today

The criminal trial of the former cryptocurrency mogul Sam Bankman-Fried will continue; it began yesterday with jury selection.

UK rail passengers face fresh disruption today, as train drivers hold another strike in a bitter, long-running dispute over pay and conditions.

Members of the drivers’ union Aslef at 16 train operators in England will walk out, coinciding with the final day of the annual conference of the Conservative Party in Manchester.

Railways will be high on the agenda in Manchester, with Rishi Sunak expected to confirm today that the northern leg of HS2 has been cancelled.

According to overnight reports, Sunak will say that the rail line will reach Manchester, but from Birmingham it will switch to use existing West Coast Mainline track.

The agenda

  • 9am BST: Eurozone services PMI rreport for September

  • 9.30am BST: UK services PMI report for September

  • 11am BST: UN annual flagship report on the global economy published

  • 1.15pm BST: ADP survey of US private sector payrolls

  • 3pm BST: US services PMI report for September

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