Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s political fortunes had been improving of late. This weekend’s assassination attempt may change that, depending on the motivation of his bomb-wielding attacker.
A surprise visit last month to Ukraine — along with a landmark deal to improve ties with South Korea — led to a jump in Kishida’s popularity, with polls showing his approval rating at its highest point since August. Buoyed by a strong result in local elections earlier this month, speculation has been abuzz in Tokyo that the 65-year-old leader may soon call an early national vote.
The election timing, in turn, adds uncertainty to bets on when new Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will start tightening the nation’s ultra-easy monetary policy. While some two-thirds of central bank watchers polled by Bloomberg last month expected a shift in June, an election would increase pressure to keep policy unchanged and avoid any potential market disruptions.
The question now is whether Kishida can keep up the positive momentum after this weekend’s attack, which came just nine months after former leader Shinzo Abe was assassinated. That’s not a given: Abe’s killing hurt the ruling Liberal Democratic Party by highlighting its links with the Unification Church, and his attacker even attracted a degree of public support.
“It all depends on the motive of the alleged criminal,” said Mieko Nakabayashi, a professor at Waseda University and former lawmaker with the opposition Democratic Party of Japan. “If this is directly related to the Unification Church, generally it is assumed that the LDP will be negatively affected.”
Little is known about the attacker who set off the explosive device at a port in the western prefecture of Wakayama, where Kishida was due to campaign for by-election candidates. Police arrested a 24-year-old man after the incident, in which one police officer was slightly injured. Media reports said a second device failed to detonate.
Kishida on Saturday insisted on continuing with a busy schedule of stump speeches ahead of the five by-elections on April 23, which offer an important test of whether the timing is right to call a national election. Holding off on a vote now would risk the possibility of a renewed slide in popularity before an LDP leadership contest in September 2024.
Abe’s old constituency is the only one of the five parliamentary seats up for grabs that appears safe for the LDP, according to polling data conducted by the Yomiuri newspaper. The other four look like tough battles, including one in which Abe’s nephew, Nobuchiyo Kishi, is running to replace his father, former Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi.
“If the Liberal Democratic Party does well in the series of elections, Prime Minister Kishida will be in a stronger political position,” said Naoko Aoki, an associate political scientist at Rand Corporation in Washington. “There would be more speculation of whether he would choose to dissolve the lower house for a general election while he has momentum.”
One potential negative for Kishida is that the attack immediately puts the spotlight back on domestic politics instead of his foreign successes. Already it’s overshadowing a meeting of Group of Seven foreign ministers starting on Sunday, which will set the agenda for a leaders summit in Hiroshima next month.
That meeting, which will feature a virtual appearance by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to address U.S. President Joe Biden and the other G-7 leaders, is set to enhance Kishida’s image as a statesman — potentially further boosting his popularity.
Other factors pushing Kishida toward an early election are the planned downgrade of the status of Covid-19 in May, as well as a return to relative calm in markets after banking sector jitters.
Missing this current window for an election carries another big risk for Kishida: The possibility of a weaker economy down the road.
Bloomberg Economics on March 31 cut its GDP growth forecast for Japan in 2023 to 0.8%, down from 1.1% previously. It said the nation’s economy “could have a rough year” as yen appreciation and weaker demand in the US and Europe takes a toll on exports.
And while Ueda has sounded slightly more dovish than many BOJ watchers expected since taking over as governor on April 9, the question is when — rather than if — he’ll tighten up monetary policy.
That all means Kishida has a lot riding on the police investigation into the attack. Although he could’ve been seriously injured or worse, his political fate may ultimately depend on the motives of the man who wanted to hurt him.
Kishida is showing no signs of backing down.
“Such an act of violence on the core of democracy is absolutely unforgivable,” he told reporters on Sunday. “It’s vital that we see the election through to its conclusion.”
—With assistance from Jon Herskovitz.
