Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s political fortunes had been improving of late. This weekend’s assassination attempt may change that, depending on the motivation of his bomb-wielding attacker.
A surprise visit last month to Ukraine — along with a landmark deal to improve ties with South Korea — led to a jump in Kishida’s popularity, with polls showing his approval rating at its highest point since August. Buoyed by a strong result in local elections earlier this month, speculation has been abuzz in Tokyo that the 65-year-old leader may soon call an early national vote.
The election timing, in turn, adds uncertainty to bets on when new Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will start tightening the nation’s ultra-easy monetary policy. While some two-thirds of central bank watchers polled by Bloomberg last month expected a shift in June, an election would increase pressure to keep policy unchanged and avoid any potential market disruptions.
