Australia is in for a warmer than usual winter, with parts of the country likely to experience temperatures in the highest 20% recorded for the season.
The Bureau of Meteorology, which released its long-range winter forecast on Thursday, said there is an 80% chance of above median temperatures across the whole country. There will probably be typical rainfall levels for large swathes of the country.
All of the capital cities in Australia’s states and territories are four times as likely to experience days and nights that are in the highest 20% of historical temperatures.
This is likely to extend to most of Victoria, and large parts of New South Wales, Western Australian, and Queensland.
“Warmer than usual days and nights are very likely everywhere,” said Stephanie Jacobs, senior climatologist at the Bureau.
It comes after most of the country experienced a warmer autumn than usual with mean temperatures about 0.5 degrees above the 1961–1990 average. Out of the states and territories, only the Northern Territory experienced a cooler autumn than average, at about 0.4C cooler than usual.
Last year, Australia’s winter was the warmest since official records began in 1910, with average daily temperatures 1.53C above the long-term average.
The 2023 winter beat the previous record of 1.46C above the average set in 1996. Every winter since 2012 has been warmer than the 30-year average calculated from 1961 to 1990.
The Bureau remains on La Niña watch with a 50/50 chance it will develop later this year. Historically, a La Niña watch has seen a La Niña event develop about half of the time later in the year.
After a wetter than average autumn for some parts of Australia, the Bureau said large parts of the country are expected to experience typical rainfall during winter. The BoM does not include a snow forecast in the winter outlook.
Above average rainfall is expected in parts of Western Australia, South Australia, and to a smaller extend in Queensland and New South Wales.
“Above average rainfall is likely for some southern, central parts of the mainland parts of the West and Queensland’s North Tropical Coast, most other areas, including most of the East Coast, have no strong signal towards either a wetter or drier winter than usual,” said Jacobs.
“This means rainfall is likely to be more typical for the season, while the forecast shows it might be drier in the far north, these areas usually have low rainfall at this time of year.”
