We’ve been fooled before. The Lions have been fooled many times in the past, ill-equipped and ill-timed to play the high-risk free-agency game.
Whatever you think of this Lions regime, slightly more than a year in place, they’re not trying to fool anybody. GM Brad Holmes and coach Dan Campbell aren’t willing to bet big money on pricey free-agents until they bet on themselves, on their scouts, coaches and drafting instincts.
Kinda boring, I know. Guarantees nothing, I understand. But if you bought the plan when they arrived — draft and develop a foundation first — you gotta understand what’s happening now. It’s a sensible plan, not a sexy one. And if you’re already passing judgment on it, you suffer from a raging case of Lion-itis.
How does a 3-13-1 team essentially stand pat in free-agency? Where was that flashy signing that creates headlines but not much more? Fair questions. Basically, the Lions are acknowledging what other teams have learned — free-agency is a tool to finish a job, not a shortcut in a rebuild. There are exceptions, and the Lions eventually must evolve. They did themselves no favors by winning one game too many, falling to No. 2 in the order and likely leaving Jacksonville to take Michigan elite pass-rusher Aidan Hutchinson at No. 1.
Ultimately, Campbell will be judged by wins and losses on the field, and Holmes will be judged by hits and misses in the draft. And the entire regime will be judged on whether Jared Goff becomes a long-term solution at quarterback, and if he doesn’t, whether they’re prepared for Plan B. Did Matthew Stafford’s Super Bowl success add pressure? Sure. Did it change anything tactically for the Lions? Not really.
“Jared played good football for us late in the year,” Holmes said this week at the NFL owners meetings. “He’s our quarterback. If you’re asking why did we not hop into that (big-acquisition) world, we’re happy with where Jared’s at right now.”
Here's your QB
They don’t have much choice. Goff has one more costly salary-cap hit ($31 million this season) before he’s legitimately moveable. With the crazy quarterback carousel that saw luminaires such as Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson and Matt Ryan dealt, Goff wasn’t going anywhere anyhow. And frankly, his solid finish to 2021 — 11 touchdowns, two interceptions in his final five games — earned him a longer look.
You know what else earns him a longer look? The absence of a can’t-miss quarterback in the April 28 draft, although some pundits suggest the Lions could be enamored with Liberty quarterback Malik Willis. Maybe they are, but highly, highly doubtful at No. 2. The Lions have nine picks, including another first-rounder at 32 (from the Rams). Because all seven of Holmes’ selections last year made the team, with standouts in first-round tackle Penei Sewell and fourth-round receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, he bought some credibility. And some time.
Not endless time, not in the NFL. The Lions didn’t noticeably upgrade their defense (rated 29th) in free-agency, and are leaning heavily on continuity in coordinator Aaron Glenn’s system. At some point soon — like, next year — Holmes will have to be more aggressive in talent acquisition. For now, he’s still cleaning out past mistakes. One-time enticing signees — Trey Flowers, Jamie Collins, Justin Coleman, Jesse James, etc. — essentially became rentals because of this odd phenomenon in sports. You know, as experienced players get older, their production drops but their salary doesn’t.
The Lions have made three notable free-agent signings this year and a few lesser deals, almost all players in their mid-20s. Two were their own — safety Tracy Walker, linebacker Charles Harris — who had breakout seasons and wanted to stay, a boon to the chemistry Campbell is trying to instill. One — DJ Chark, 25, from Jacksonville — was a hedged bet, a talented 6-4 receiver who signed a one-year deal.
“I totally understand, especially from our fans’ perspective, you say, look man, a three-win team, why you bringing back the same players?” Holmes said. “As much work as we put into the production those players had in our system, there’s a lot of optimism. It’s still being aggressive, even if you don’t go the external route.”
The Lions have built an offensive line that should be top-10 in the league, and did it almost completely through the draft , including picks by the Bob Quinn-Matt Patricia regime. Two stalwarts — Taylor Decker and Frank Ragnow — missed most of last season to injury, and Sewell looks to be a star.
The offense is much farther along than the defense, with D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams in the backfield. Williams was one of those low-key signings, along with unheralded receivers Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond. They’ve added Chark, who was sidelined after four games with a broken ankle but caught 73 passes with the Jaguars in 2019.
Free-agent history isn't great
It’s hard to separate gold from fool’s gold in talent evaluation, which is why good GMs judge the scheme and culture fit as closely as they judge the player. Previous regimes often grabbed for shiny objects regardless of age or price. Going back a decade or more, you can count the Lions free-agents that made lasting impacts on one hand — Glover Quin, Marvin Jones Jr., Golden Tate, Stephen Tulloch, Nate Burleson.
“Last season, we kind of held back from adding all these veteran free-agents that maybe would help us get another win or so,” Holmes said. “So we took the plan to develop, and I think that plan started to crystallize as the season progressed.”
The Lions did finish 3-3 after starting 0-8 despite a raft of injuries. Holmes made some poor receiver acquisitions last year — Breshad Perriman, Tyrell Williams, Trinity Benson — but they were low-cost choices easily eradicated.
He can’t make a poor choice at 2, 32, or even 34. There’s still a month of evaluating, although the Lions surely have an idea what they’ll to do. If Jacksonville veers away from Hutchinson for some reason, he’d be the obvious choice.
It’s funny, because early in the process, the top pick was expected to be a dead heat between Hutchinson and Oregon rush end Kayvon Thibodeaux. Some mock drafts now have Thibodeaux going as low as ninth because of a perceived motivational deficit. Another perception was that none of the top five quarterback prospects — Willis, Kenny Pickett, Matt Corral, Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder — was worth a first-round pick. Now, Willis and perhaps Pickett could go in the top 15.
If Holmes likes one or two of the quarterbacks, and they slip to 32, he has to consider taking him. Behind Goff, the Lions have only David Blough and Tim Boyle. Even if you believe wholly in Goff, having a quarterback on a rookie contract is an asset.
At No. 2, Holmes is open to all options, as he should be. There have been sporadic trade discussions, and it would be ideal to move down and collect more picks. There have been positional debates, and an impact defensive player makes the most sense.
“I’ve always said, we want a game-changer at that pick,” Holmes said. “If the draft was today, we could turn that card in and sleep good at night.”
There are multiple possibilities. Georgia defensive end Travon Walker has risen up charts, as has Florida State pass-rusher Jermaine Johnson. But I think it’ll come down to two.
Thibodeaux has faced questions about his passion for football, fair or not, but his athleticism makes him a potential game-changer. And Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton is considered by some the best defensive player in the draft, a 6-4 playmaker. He didn’t run particularly fast in workouts and safety isn’t considered a premium position, but as passing games have evolved, it has become more valuable.
There’s no such thing as a safe pick, unless Hutchinson falls to them. Holmes has played it safe in free-agency, and now faces far greater risk in the first round. According to his plan, it’s a risk he’ll be happy and prepared to take.
