The only stat that matters to me when No. 12 BYU visits No. 25 Oregon on Saturday is 20-0. That’s the Ducks’ record in their last 20 games at home, the third-longest home winning streak in the country. And that’s precisely why I like them to get the win over BYU.
The only question is whether or not Oregon covers 3.5 points, and I think they will for one reason: Bo Nix.
Nix will be the best quarterback BYU’s defense has faced through three games. The former five-star bounced back from a rough opener against Georgia to throw for five touchdowns against Eastern Washington in Week 2. BYU’s defense is somewhere in the middle of those prior two opponents, but nowhere near Georgia and not so good that it can’t be exploited by a capable player under center.
Nix’s job will be made easier by a strong rushing attack that averaged 4.5 yards per carry against UGA and sits at 5.1 yards per carry on the season.
Oregon’s defense isn’t scaring anyone either, which is why I think the game goes over 57.5 points. BYU scored 20 regulation points on a very tough Baylor defense, which should serve as a baseline for the Cougars on Saturday. But in the end, Oregon’s firepower should win out. I’m rolling with the Ducks by a score of 33-29.
