The Blues began the second half of the season with a resounding thud in Calgary. But overall, the major indicators say this can be a contending team, one that can make a deep playoff run. Even with Jordan Binnington’s struggles.
Look no farther than the four major statistical categories of NHL hockey for proof that St. Louis has the ingredients of a top 10 team:
— Goals for: Fifth in the NHL at 3.45 goals per game.
— Goals against: Ninth, at 2.71 goals per game.
— Power play: Third, at 28.9 percent.
— Penalty kill: Fourth, at 84.3 percent.
The numbers are all the more impressive when considering the toll taken by injuries and COVD. Sure, the Blues are not the Lone Rangers here, but they’ve had more than their share. They’ve yet to have their entire roster available for a single game.
The Blues have had 21 players on the COVID list. Over a 13-game stretch from Thanksgiving until the end of December, they had fewer than 12 forwards available in 10 games. The result has been a steady stream of call-ups from the Springfield Thunderbirds that has finally abated this month.
Nonetheless, the Blues (25-12-5) were tied for seventh in points (55) and ninth in points percentage (.655) entering Tuesday’s games.
Here’s an overview of where the Blues stand on offense, defense, special teams and goaltending entering the second half of the season:
Offense
OK, scoring is up in the NHL. But keep in mind, the Blues' 2018-19 Stanley Cup championship team averaged 2.98 goals per game. That’s half a goal less per game than the ’21-22 Blues, which is a lot.
The additions of Pavel Buchnevich (trade) and Brandon Saad (free agency) by general manager Doug Armstrong have paid huge dividends. Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas and Ivan Barbashev have taken big steps forward. Vladimir Tarasenko has made a resounding comeback from shoulder issues.
As a result, the Blues currently have five players on pace to finish in the 25- to 30-goal range in Kyrou (16 goals so far), Barbashev (15), Buchnevich (15), Tarasenko (14) and Saad (13).
Ryan O’Reilly (nine), Brayden Schenn (nine) and David Perron (eight) could threaten 20 goals. Schenn and O’Reilly have picked up their production lately. Only Perron is struggling with just one goal since suffering an upper-body injury Nov. 26 in Chicago.
Scoring by defensemen has held up, with Justin Faulk (six goals), Torey Krug (six) and Colton Parayko (five) all on pace for 10 goals.
Monday’s 7-1 loss in Calgary marked only the fourth time in 42 games the Blues have failed to score at least two goals.
Defense
The results have been better than expected, but questions remain as to whether the Blues have enough on the blueline to make a deep postseason run. The trade deadline isn’t until March 21, almost two months away, so Armstrong has plenty of time to work on scenarios and decide on a course of action. As always, he’ll let the team’s play in this area help make the decision.
The key player in all this is Niko Mikkola. If he can show he’s capable of playing a top-four role on defense, perhaps Armstrong stands pat. If he doesn’t seem capable of doing so, well, the phone lines are open. They’re always open with Armstrong.
Mikkola played only 30 games all of last season. He has played 25 in a row this season since re-entering the lineup Nov. 22 against Vegas. And it’s been a strong run of play, characterized by feisty, physical play, and increased ice time and responsibility.
Then came Monday in Calgary, when Mikkola was minus-5 and benched after two periods. Will his confidence take a hit? Or will he get right back on the horse? Stay tuned.
Special teams
The consistency of both the power play and penalty kill have been impressive. The Blues have scored at least one power play goal in 28 of 42 games. And that’s almost always a good thing, since they are 19-6-3 in games where they score at least one goal with a man advantage.
Mirroring the depth on offense, the Blues have seven players with at least three power play goals, headed by Schenn, Saad and Buchnevich with five apiece. If the production continues, the Blues will set a franchise record for power-play efficiency; the existing mark is 24.6 percent, set in 1986-87.
On the penalty kill, a new system and more aggressive approach is paying dividends. The Blues have had only four games in which they’ve given up two power play goals. And in the 39 games in which they’ve had to kill at least one penalty, they’ve allowed no power play goals 23 times.
Some new faces are getting penalty kill time and have been effective – most noticeably Robert Thomas. Despite his struggles elsewhere, Marco Scandella has been a rock on the PK. And old reliables such as Robert Bortuzzo, Tyler Bozak and Oskar Sundqvist continue to thrive here.
Goaltending
In a season full of the unexpected, the most surprising development over the first half has been Ville Husso. There was a time in the Blues organization when he was considered a better pro prospect than Binnington, and he’s showing it in a big way by playing with extreme confidence. His numbers are just shy of astounding: 8-2-1 record, 1.88 goals-against, .943 save percentage.
For comparison’s sake, Binnington’s regular-season season numbers over 32 games during the Stanley Cup season included a 1.89 GAA and a .927 save percentage. So that’s an indication of the type of neighborhood Husso’s in, albeit in only 13 games.
In contrast to Husso’s ascendancy is Binnington’s stark decline since returning from the COVID list Dec. 19 against Winnipeg. Entering that game, he had a 2.80 goals-against average and a .912 save percentage in 16 games – not world-beating numbers but acceptable.
Starting with that Winnipeg game, Binnington has a 4.44 GAA and a .878 save percentage over seven games. Binnington had midseason slumps in each of the past two seasons and bounced back from them. Whether he can do it again is one of the big keys to the rest of this season.
