As of 6 p.m. ET Tuesday, playoff roster possibilities are essentially set. That hour brings an end to the trade deadline and the movement of players on 40-man rosters. Until 2019, players could be traded after the deadline if they passed through waivers. The advent of the single trade deadline has made it almost mandatory for contending teams to upgrade their roster now. It is the closing of an acquisition window you ignore at your own peril.
That is why we have seen a flurry of activity in the past few days. And why more is still to come. Here are the biggest story lines still in play as the clock runs out on preparing for October.
1. The Elite Starting Pitchers
There are three pitchers available who could start Games 1 or 2 of a postseason series: Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers, Garrett Crochet of the Chicago White Sox and Blake Snell of the San Francisco Giants. Snell is the most likely to be traded. Here is why:
The Tigers never intended to trade Skubal but were willing to be blown away by an offer for the elite lefthander with 2 1/2 years of control. It has not happened. In the meantime, the Tigers have been on a 15–9 run to create badly needed momentum for the franchise. A deal is less likely now than it was two weeks ago.
The White Sox, meanwhile, lost significant trading leverage with the news of “The Crochet Rules”: he wants to remain a starter, and he does not want to pitch in October—unless an acquiring team wants to secure his financial future with a contract extension. Don’t blame Crochet. He’s looking after his own health. In his first season as a starter and coming off Tommy John surgery, he was scheduled to make 20 to 25 starts this year. He’s already made 21. He decided the routine of starting is better for his arm health than the uncertainty of bullpen use.
A team trading for Crochet could make the deal contingent on a negotiating window (that window could not extend past the trade deadline) or it could roll the dice and try to work out an extension after a trade and before October. That’s a lot that must fall in place quickly: the prospect capital to send to Chicago, successful negotiations to lock up someone who has thrown only 184 1/3 innings over four years of service (Pablo López had 510 innings with four years of service when the Twins signed him to a four-year, $73.5 million extension last year) and some kind of plan to keep Crochet going into a seventh month.
As for Snell, he is 0–3 in 10 starts this year, but he’s been lights out this month (0.75 ERA, 30 strikeouts and seven walks in 24 innings) and has a fresh arm. So why would the San Francisco Giants trade him while they remain in the wild-card hunt?
Barring an injury in the next two months, Snell is likely to opt out of his contract. The Giants cannot extend a qualifying offer to him, which would have netted them a compensation pick. So, if the Giants want something for the $32 million they have invested in Snell (other than rehabbing from soft tissue injuries), they put him on the market as a rarely available impact postseason starting pitcher (38 hits and 61 strikeouts in 48 2/3 postseason innings) and at least see what they can get.
The Yankees, Padres, Cardinals, Orioles and Dodgers all should be in on Snell (though don’t expect the Giants to help the Dodgers win the World Series here). He may be a $6 million rental, or about $12.5 million for New York or Los Angeles because of tax penalties. But he also could remain on his current deal and a team then is on the hook for $30 million next year. It’s interesting to see Crochet with his health concerns and Snell with his player option control leverage in the trade market.
2. The Volatile Relief Market (to be continued)
Step back a minute. Teams stepped up quickly to swap prospects to get Yimi Garcia, 33 (on his fourth team), Jason Adam, 32 (non-tendered three years ago), Hunter Harvey, 29 (one season with 50 innings), Carlos Estévez, 31 (4.29 career ERA), Ryne Stanek, 33 (fifth team) and Nick Mears, 27 (waived by two teams). Phillies president Dave Dombrowski traded two potential big league starters to get Estévez, but he knows how important back-end arms are for getting through multiple rounds of the postseason.
Postseason baseball is more about relief pitching than even the regular season. Starting pitchers throw five innings or fewer this year in 45.9% of starts. Over the past two postseasons, the rate of five-innings-or-fewer starts is 54.3%.
The relief market is bonkers, and we still have the best relievers available: Tanner Scott of the Marlins, Pete Fairbanks of the Rays and Kyle Finnegan of the Nationals, as well as Trevor Richards, Luis García, Andrew Chafin, Chad Green and other set-up relievers.
3. The White Sox
They still have Crochet, Luis Robert, Tommy Pham, Erick Fedde and Michael Kopech. A team on pace to lose 120 games must capitalize on a sellers’ market. Will their patience pay?
4. The Rays
Churn, baby, churn. Over the past 11 seasons, only one player has played in 650 games with the Rays (Kevin Kiermaier). Randy Arozarena (568) and Issac Paredes (354) are the latest to be gone. Yandy Díaz (617) could be next.
In those same 11 seasons, no pitcher has won more than 45 games for the team (Chris Archer). Zach Eflin signed a three-year, $40 million contract after the Rays recruited him with a visit to his Florida house. It was the biggest free agent deal in Tampa Bay history. Nice story. But in the fine print, the deal was backloaded, with $18 million due next year. The Rays traded him before that bill became due.
The Rays traded Arozarena and Eflin to fellow AL playoff contenders and Paredes to an NL team with a worse record. And they’re probably not done. It’s a credit to the front office that it can identify talent in trades (Arozarena, Paredes and Diaz were all acquired in trades) to keep the team competitive.
5. Starting Pitcher Depth
Does it matter? Not in the postseason, but it can matter when it comes to getting into the postseason. If you need a pitcher to make 11 starts before the playoffs, you can choose from among Jack Flaherty, Erick Fedde, Yusei Kikuchi, Jameson Taillon, Cal Quantrill and Tyler Anderson. It’s a much slower market than the relief market.
6. Who Gets Burned?
The cost of doing nothing before the trade deadline is high, in terms of public perception and clubhouse vibes (the expectations of deals get higher every year) and the risk that a lack of depth shows up later. There are so many buyers and so few sellers that not every team is going to be happy on the other side of the deadline (to say nothing of its fans).
The best starting pitcher, relief pitcher and hitter still likely to be traded are Snell, Scott and Díaz. Teams that lose out on those players are quickly running out of other options.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Blake Snell, Tarik Skubal and the Biggest Story Lines Ahead of MLB's Trade Deadline.
