
Critics of the Blackhawks’ tanking plan have pointed out that finishing last in the NHL comes with only a 25.5% chance of getting the No. 1 overall pick.
The counterargument is that finishing last guarantees a top-three overall pick. The last-place team has an 18.8% chance of getting the No. 2 pick and a 55.7% chance of dropping to third, but it can fall no further.