Twelve months used to be enough time for a thesis to play out. That is changing. Strengthening mega forces are putting sustained pressure on labor, energy, infrastructure, capital and materials all at once. These supply side constraints are shaping growth, inflation and the price of risk in ways that do not resolve on a calendar year timeline.
AI is the clearest example. It raises the prospect of a permanent growth breakout, accelerating innovation itself and compressing decade long timelines into a few years. But the path to that abundance, when it arrives, runs through scarcity first: power, chips, skilled labor, grid capacity. This tension between a structural, multi year story and near term supply constraints is now surfacing across other asset classes, reshaping how portfolios get built.
