Since the assassination attempt of Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania last weekend, Bitcoin has risen by 9%. As of Wednesday afternoon EST, the currency is trading around $64,500, according to CoinGecko data. The soaring price appears tied to a belief that the near-miss has further boosted the chances of crypto-friendly leaders winning the White House in November.
In light of the shooting, prediction markets have swung in Trump's favor. For instance, since Saturday, Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, has increased its forecast to 70%. Similarly, PredictIt has boosted the former president’s odds to 67%. Research suggests that prediction markets, where traders buy shares in the outcome they deem most likely, may be a “better forecaster” of political outcomes, on average. Meanwhile, on betting site BetOnline, Trump’s odds stand at -300 to win back the White House, equating to a 75% probability.
