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HARRISON MILLER

Bitcoin ETF Check Up: GBTC Flashes Bullish Signal As Outflows Slow. Where Do BlackRock, ARK ETFs Rank?

Bitcoin ETF shares rose broadly early Tuesday, on track for their fifth straight day of gains. Meanwhile, bitcoin rebounded about 9% over the past week after falling from two-year highs near $49,000 in early January. The Jan. 11 launch of spot bitcoin ETFs turned out to be, as some analysts predicted, a "sell-the-news" event. But the profit-taking appears to be subsiding. Meanwhile, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust shares are rebounding and making a bullish move off a key level of support.

Grayscale saw substantial outflows since its conversion to a spot bitcoin ETF, although the rate has decelerated. GBTC outflows slowed to $191.7 million on Monday from $255.1 million on Friday. Outgoing capital totaled $5.041.2 billion in the first 11 trading days following the bitcoin ETF launches. The nine newborn ETFs managed to offset those outflows, with gross inflows of $5.8 billion during that period, according to data from Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart.

Still, GBTC was by far the volume leader in trading through Monday, recording $13.2 billion in total trading volume. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust and the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund ranked next in terms of total volume during that period. IBIT saw $5.31 billion in trading volume through Monday while FBTC recorded $4.56 billion.

IBIT saw $2.17 billion in inflows during the first 11 days of bitcoin ETF trading, followed by Fidelity at about $1.93 billion.

Total trading volume across the newly-issued spot bitcoin ETFs, excluding Grayscale and Hashdex, reached $12.736 billion through Monday, according to Bloomberg data.

Despite the outflows, Grayscale holds $20.84 billion in assets, making it by far the largest bitcoin fund. IBIT ranks second with $2.19 billion in assets and Fidelity has $1.94 billion in assets as of Monday.

Cathie Wood's ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF recorded $1.42 billion in total trading volume through Monday with $596.4 million in inflows. ARKB holds $604.6 million in assets under management.

Bitcoin ETF Price Action

Bitcoin ETFs have trended higher the past week after an initial tumble post-launch.

GBTC on Friday rebounded above its 21-day exponential moving average and 10-day line after a bounce off its 50-day line on Jan. 23. GBTC stock rose slightly early Tuesday after surging 2.7% Monday.

Grayscale rallied 11.2% so far this year.

IBIT inched higher Tuesday morning and swung 2.8% higher Monday. IBIT shares have nearly recovered their post-launch declines.

FBTC ticked up less than 1% early Tuesday following its 2.9% advance Monday.

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin hovered around $43,400 Tuesday morning, up nearly 3.4% over the past 24 hours, but fading from its overnight high of $43,833.

BTC had spiked to $49,000 Jan. 11 on the ETF launch — its highest level since December 2021. BTC then fell back into its early December 2023 level prior to the SEC announcement. The world's largest cryptocurrency rebounded about 157% in 2023. Bitcoin is up about 2.7% so far this year.

You can follow Harrison Miller for more stock news and updates on X/Twitter @IBD_Harrison

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