US births have decreased since 2015, reaching 3.6 million in 2020. This is the lowest number of births in 42 years, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
The decrease in births comes as childcare costs are rising and women's choices around when and if to have children are evolving.
Childcare costs are up across all categories.
Childcare arrangements for children under six years old are more expensive than before, according to the Early Childhood Program Participation Survey. In 2016, sending a child to center-based care was 72% more expensive than in 2001. For nonrelative care outside of a center — like a nanny or babysitter — the price increased by 48%. The cost of a relative caring for the child went up by 79%. Wage growth has lagged behind these rising costs. In the same period, wages for full-time employees rose by 3%, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Other childrearing costs are also increasing.
The US Department of Agriculture estimates that the total cost of raising a child born in 2015 through the age of 17 — excluding college and assuming the use of childcare services — is $233,610. The price of raising a child born in 1960 was $202,020 in inflation-adjusted to 2015 dollars. That reflects a 16% increase.
The biggest drivers of increased child rearing costs are childcare, education and healthcare expenses. Childcare and education make up 16% of childrearing expenditures for children born in 2015 compared to 2% for kids born in 1960. Healthcare expenses increased from 4% in 1960 to 9% in 2015. Housing, food, transportation and clothing are a smaller portion of the budget for raising a kid born in 2015 compared to 1960.
Women give birth later in their lives compared to 1980.
Over the past 40 years, births in the 30–34 age group almost doubled, while they tripled for women 35–39 and quadrupled for women 40–44. At the same time, births in the 20–24 and 25–29 age groups decreased.
Birth rates for teenagers are also declining. Based on 2020 provisional data from the CDC , the 15–19 group birth rate decreased 8% from 2019.
As women age, the number of additional children they expect to have falls, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. This is true regardless of how many they already have. Three quarters of women in the 15–24 age group who have one child expect to have another one in the future, while 23% of those in the 35–44 age group do.
More women are using contraception.
CDC data shows an increase in women using contraception, from 61.6% in 2011-2015 to 63.5% in 2015-2017. The same report also shows a rise in the percentage of women who are voluntarily childless. In 2015, they were 7.4% of the 15-44 age group as compared to 6.2% in 2002.
| Year | Percent of women voluntarily childless |
|---|---|
| 2002 | 6.2% |
| 2006-2010 | 6% |
| 2011-2015 | 7.4% |
Fewer families are having children. But families with kids are having more children.
Data from the Census Bureau shows that the average number of children for families overall has declined for decades. (The Census definition of a family includes any group of two or more people “related by birth, marriage, or adoption and residing together.) The trend, however, has not been the same for families with children under 18. In families with kids — both married and single-parent households — the average number of children is trending upward in the last decade. Married couples with kids in 2020 had 1.99 children on average — the highest in 43 years. The average number of children in single-parent households is gradually increasing. It went from 1.50 in 2000 to 1.64 for men with no spouse present in 2020 and from 1.75 in 2000 to 1.85 for women with no spouse present in 2020.
Learn more about population change at the State of the Union in Numbers.
