The December league meeting is underway, and you guys filled the mailbag. So I answered that mail while stalking a hotel lobby …
From FireFattPatricia (@FFattPatricia): Does Kraft put his foot down and make Bill hire an actual OC?
Well, that’s an aggressive Twitter handle you’ve got there, bud.
I think your question is actually a pretty interesting one, because there are a number of outcomes that could be in play for the Patriots if the offense struggles down the stretch. Let me be clear in saying I don’t really see a scenario where Robert Kraft would fire Bill Belichick after this year. And I’d be just as clear in telling you that 2023 is shaping up to be a massively important year for the franchise, because the post-third-year decision point on Mac Jones will come after that season.
In a lot of ways, I think the Patriots are on Jones where the Dolphins were last year on Tua Tagovailoa—knowing he can play, but still lacking the information to make a decision on whether he’s worth an extension at upward of $50 million per year (where the quarterback market figures to be in 2024). Miami, for what it’s worth, responded by hiring Mike McDaniel, trading for Tyreek Hill and signing Terron Armstead, and as a result will come out of this year with a much clearer picture on who Tagovailoa is as a quarterback.
Fact is, much of that action was driven by ownership wanting answers. And so it’ll be interesting to see if Kraft acts with the same urgency this offseason. Will Belichick make the staff changes on offense, maybe to bring back Bill O’Brien, without a push? If he doesn’t, will Kraft try to push him to? If there’s an ultimatum delivered, would Belichick consider walking? These are all questions that I’ve considered.
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports
Ultimately, my guess would be Kraft will sit down to look at the state of the team after the season and gently nudge—rather than force anything—Belichick to add some more know-how to his offensive staff, particularly with the contract of tight ends coach Nick Caley up, and no one carrying the coordinator title, which creates opportunity to naturally hire someone into the job. Will Belichick do it? That’s an open question.
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From Big Doug (@DougMcCrayNFL): Will the League ever consider using a universal playing surface?
Doug, I don’t think so. There’s too much money to be made in building domes and stocking these buildings with events—so I don’t think the league is going to come out and tell, say, the Bears or the Titans that they can’t put artificial surfaces down in their new indoor venues, which will be built for much more than just football.
That said, I do think resources need to be poured into finding ways to build the best surfaces that players are most comfortable on, and, the research says, despite narratives to the contrary, that the answer remains natural grass. The gutted-and-reimagined stadium Real Madrid uses in Spain—you have to see it to believe it—is a good example of there being a way, if you have the will to find it.
I’d also say this is a good place to applaud the Bills for committing to putting natural grass down in their new stadium, even in a climate where it’ll be tough to keep it pristine. They saw, as we all could, how the Packers invested to get it right and have been successful. Good on them for doing it. I know a lot of players wish more teams would.
From DeWayne Close (@CoachDeWayneC): How much longer is the league going to let Dan Snyder stay around?
DeWayne, I’d say the ship has left port on that one. The bidding for and sale of a multibillion-dollar business can’t happen overnight. But it’s obvious, from Snyder’s hiring of Bank of America to the sea change in tone in team-issued statements on the matter, that they’ll be taking bids in the not-too-distant future.
So how fast will it move along? It’s absolutely realistic to see a scenario where a new owner is in place before the start of next season. Consider the Broncos’ sale. Bidding on the team opened in early February, and the NFL approved the sale in early August. Now, in that case, the overwhelming wealth of the Walton family made the transaction relatively simple. But we’ve got nine months until the 2023 season begins, so there’s runway.
And if new ownership is in place by then, things can start rolling on getting a stadium built on the RFK site and maybe a new practice facility closer to D.C., and we’re talking about a whole new dynamic for the long-dormant, once-proud flagship franchise.
Which is to say, be patient. There’s plenty to look forward to.
From Mr. Schwab (@schwab_mr): Will Chris Ballard be gone at the end of the year?
Schwab, I’d say that depends on what Jim Irsay decides to do with the head coach spot.
I think the owner’s preference here would be to stick with Ballard and hire a coach to work with him. What could throw a wrench into that is if he shoots high for a coach who’ll come in with the leverage to ask for his people to be hired around him. And that’s where you could see, say, a Jim Harbaugh asking for his own GM, and Irsay acquiescing both to get Harbaugh and to do everything he could to avoid a Trent Baalke situation with him.
If Jeff Saturday stays, my guess is Ballard will, too. Which wouldn’t be a bad result, if you like Saturday’s potential as a coach, because I still think Ballard’s a really good GM.
From SalamanderSanders (@StephenHobin90): Top 3 O-Linemen in NFL this season?
Salamander, I checked in with a personnel exec I respect on this stuff, because it’s not like I’m breaking down line play for all 32 teams, and I got a few names for you. We can start with the veteran foundation of the 12–1 Eagles’ line, with right tackle Lane Johnson and center Jason Kelce thrown in the mix. Trent Williams has maintained his normal Hall of Fame–level of play in San Francisco. And our guy mentioned Browns G Joel Bitonio, Chiefs G Joe Thuney and Texans LT Laremy Tunsil as others.
A second exec gave me the two Eagles guys and Williams, so let’s go with those three.
I do appreciate the question, because it led me to asking around, and learning a little more about this stuff. So thank you.
From Greg (@panther1gb89): Does Wilks keep the HC job in Carolina? If not, who does Tepper go after?
Greg, the only thing I’ve consistently heard on the Panthers’ pending coaching search is that he’s leaning toward hiring a young, offensive-minded assistant for the position—taking the Rams-in-2017 approach of trying to find the next Sean Payton, rather than hiring the actual Payton (back then, for the Rams, the “Sean Payton” would’ve been Jon Gruden). And so you might consider Detroit’s Ben Johnson, Philly’s Shane Steichen or Buffalo’s Ken Dorsey.
But, to be clear, that doesn’t disqualify Steve Wilks, who’s done a really good job and has earned a real look. Even before Matt Rhule’s firing, people on the coaching staff and in personnel were raving about Wilks and hoping he’d eventually get a second shot at being a head coach after going one-and-done in Arizona (the problem there was largely how he filled out his staff and some misses he had in that regard). So there’s support for him internally, without question.
That said, I do think that Tepper’s going to want to find his own guy here.
From Fear The Deer (19-6) (@DSwan35): Who is your favorite NFL player/coach to interview currently in the league?
Fear, there are a whole bunch of guys that are good. Among players, Joe Burrow’s good because of his recall on everything. Tyreek Hill is entertaining. Lamar Jackson is great because he’ll challenge you and he’s genuine. And on the coach side, I really like talking to coaches who you know are great teachers—and can explain things in a digestible way—and I’ve always thought Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan were awesome in that regard.
Also, Dan Campbell is fantastic to talk to. You could sit there for hours and talk to that dude about just about anything.
From El 49er fan (@el49erfan): If/when DeMeco Ryans gets a head coach position, should Kyle Shanahan go for a Wade Phillips/Vic Fangio defensive coordinator or a promotion from his assistants??
El 49er fan, I think Fangio is the logical choice. Shanahan was very interested in hiring him in 2017, when he first got to San Francisco. And hiring Fangio would give the Niners a guy who’d probably stick around for a while, which would be a benefit for a franchise that’s been bleeding promising young assistant coaches of late (for all the right reasons).
From Duke Ratanakarn (@sanddune80): What do you think the Broncos would do to Russ next year, considering his cap ramifications are outrageous?
Duke, I think they’re in a spot where they have to do their very best to get everything they possibly can out of Russell Wilson. The reason why is there’s really no separating yourself from the contract.
Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports
Without boring you with all the details, the reality is that Wilson’s contract included a fully guaranteed total of $124 million at signing. His cap hit this year is $17 million. That means cutting him after this year would leave $107 million (minus whatever he’d make somewhere else) to be accounted for on the salary cap, whether it’s for this year or over two years. If he was traded, there’d be $40 million in dead cap to deal with, and the sunk cost for his single season in Denver would be $57 million (no one’s trading for him now).
So it’s really Wilson or bust for the new Broncos owners, at least for now.
And I will say that, before his concussion, Wilson showed a spark Sunday against the Chiefs, and I think some of it was because the staff started to use him a little more like he’d been deployed in Seattle—with more designed runs, option concepts and effort to get him on the move in the throw game. So can they sell Wilson on playing more like he did as a Seahawk, something he was trying to get away from? I’d say that’s where they have to go with this. And getting there, or not, could well determine the current staff’s future.
From Nick Marovets (@MarvOnAir_show): Is there a possibility Josh McDaniels retires to leave Vegas and then unretires to become the OC for the Patriots, moving Matt Patricia to DC, and bringing TB12 back home??
No.
From Nicholas Packard (@NicholasPackar4): What should the Giants do in the draft. Should they try and trade up for Levis from Kentucky? Or fill other holes first?
Nicholas, I’d say whether the Giants draft a quarterback or find a stopgap for 2023 is still up in the air. As it is for other teams likely to draft high like the Lions, Texans, Colts and Seahawks. And the reason why is I’m going to guess that the quarterback class, while significantly stronger than last year’s, won’t garner many consensus opinions.
So some teams will be comfortable with Bryce Young’s size. Others won’t. Some teams will believe they can coach C.J. Stroud to play more efficiently when things break down around him. Others won’t. Some teams will believe Will Levis and Anthony Richardson can be developed from raw, talented athletes into top NFL quarterbacks. Others won’t. And those assessments will paint whether teams like the Giants take quarterbacks high. Or don’t.
(That’s a long way of saying it’s too early to guess on the Giants’ plans for the draft.)
From Bryce (@SourdoughSpam): Feels like Tom Brady, Jimmy G, Purdy, and Lance are all real options for the Niners next year. I know it’s early, but any feel how QB1 plays out for the Niners this off-season?
Bryce, my guess would be Jimmy Garoppolo will be elsewhere, maybe playing for former Niners assistant Robert Saleh in New York, and Trey Lance and Brock Purdy will (obviously) still be on the roster. And if it’s just those two, Lance is the presumptive starter, in all likelihood, with Purdy giving them solid depth.
Tom Brady is the wild card. I think playing next year is a real consideration for him. I also believe he’d be a consideration in Vegas (and we’ll know what the Raiders’ plans are in mid-February, when the team has to make a decision on the $40 million in Derek Carr’s contract that’s set to become fully guaranteed).
From GotThatDawg (@GolfSthompson): Has the recent 1st round pick compensation results (i.e., top-10 picks for Texans, Lions, and Seahawks in exchange for QBs) depressed future value for aging QB’s–specifically, Aaron Rodgers?
Dawg, it’s a really good question. And I actually don’t think it’s necessarily about only older quarterbacks. It’s about all quarterbacks.
The three cases you raised are separate from one another. The Rams traded for Matthew Stafford to maximize a strong core of players they had in house in the here and now. They won a Super Bowl. So there’s no regret there, and the high pick the Lions wound up getting, added to the success of Jared Goff, really makes that deal a win-win. In the case of Deshaun Watson, that trade was sort of the opposite—made with the next decade in mind, knowing Year 1 could be a wash. So there’s not real regret there yet, either.
That leaves Wilson. And really, to me, that’s not even about his age. It’s about properly assessing the player and the situation. As I said earlier, I really think a big part of this is how he’s been deployed and his willingness to go back to a style of play that worked in Seattle forever. Which, honestly, is something you need to vet out before you make the trade. The Broncos did, of course, and I think now they’re paying for a leap of faith, and in a position where I believe they’re going to have to try to start over with Wilson.
That brings me to the reason why you make a trade like that in the first place. In the NFL, you either have a quarterback or you don’t. Which is why these dice rolls are almost always at least understandable.
